Citigroup has revised its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, attributing the changes to slow progress in U.S. legislation that is crucial for regulatory catalysts expected to enhance demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and promote broader institutional adoption. The Wall Street brokerage expresses concern over the stagnation of progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation, particularly the Clarity Act, which has seen diminishing chances of passing due to disagreements on stablecoin regulation and a tightening timeframe for approval ahead of the 2026 deadline.
As a result of these developments, Citigroup has decreased its Bitcoin price forecast from $143,000 to $112,000 and lowered its Ethereum estimate from $4,304 to $3,175. Citi strategist Alex Saunders emphasized that while regulatory catalysts could drive increased adoption, the window of opportunity for new U.S. legislation is closing rapidly this year.
In light of a potential recessionary economic environment, Citigroup has outlined a scenario where Bitcoin could dip to $58,000 and Ethereum could fall to $1,198. Conversely, in a more optimistic scenario driven by strong end-investor demand, Bitcoin could soar to $165,000 and Ethereum could reach $4,488. Current prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum are approximately $74,298 and $2,345, respectively, as of early Tuesday.
Citi noted that Ethereum, in particular, is likely to be heavily influenced by user activity metrics, which have recently shown weakness. Nevertheless, trends in stablecoins and tokenization may revive interest and usage in the cryptocurrency space.
Looking ahead to the mid-term elections in November, the firm warned that the likelihood of passing a crypto bill could decrease if Democrats gain more seats in Congress. This is due to a growing divide among Democratic lawmakers concerning the overhaul of federal regulations to accommodate cryptocurrencies. The bill would require the backing of at least seven Senate Democrats to progress, with some members advocating for provisions that would prohibit elected officials from profiting from cryptocurrency enterprises. This point has gained attention amid scrutiny of the Trump family’s involvement in financial projects.
Concerns over the bill’s content extend to calls for stricter anti-money laundering regulations from other lawmakers. Analysts suggest that, as legislative news unfolds, Bitcoin is likely to trade within a range, with $70,000 emerging as a pivotal price level as the election approaches.
