Coinbase Global has expanded its offerings by launching prediction markets across all 50 U.S. states, collaborating with Kalshi to enable users to engage in markets centered on various topics including cryptocurrency prices, politics, and sports. This strategic move is intended to enhance the platform’s appeal and provide both new and existing customers with additional tools.
Toni Gemayel, the head of prediction markets at Coinbase, elaborated on the initiative’s significance, emphasizing the company’s ambition to transition into what he calls the “everything exchange.” This shift aims to diversify the company’s services, showcasing an intent to support a broad spectrum of items beyond just cryptocurrencies, including equities and commodities, with advanced features expected to arrive by the end of 2025.
Gemayel highlighted the compatibility of prediction markets with the cryptocurrency sector, particularly during volatile periods, such as the recent dip in Bitcoin’s price. He noted that traders rely on these markets for insights into future price movements, which can inform their investment decisions regarding assets like Bitcoin. According to Gemayel, prediction markets serve as a forecasting tool, providing users with odds scores that indicate market sentiments on the prices of cryptocurrencies.
When questioned about whether the introduction of prediction markets could attract new users or serve as a retention tool, Gemayel clarified that the objective is to broaden the category itself rather than simply acquire or retain customers. He views prediction markets as a unique asset class that can greatly enrich the user experience on Coinbase.
Since their launch in January, Coinbase’s prediction markets have experienced early success, with users showing keen interest particularly in sports, politics, and cryptocurrency topics. Gemayel cautioned against over-analyzing the early data, particularly in light of the upcoming midterm elections, which he predicts could generate significant participation in political prediction markets.
On the regulatory front, Gemayel assured users that strict rules are in place prohibiting Coinbase employees and executives from betting on the platform’s own prediction markets, except for testing purposes. He reiterated Coinbase’s commitment to maintaining transparency and putting customer interests first.
Gemayel’s background in prediction markets extends beyond his current role at Coinbase. He previously worked with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and founded The Clearing Company, which was acquired by Coinbase in December. Reflecting on his deep-rooted involvement in prediction markets, Gemayel expressed surprise at the market’s rapid growth, acknowledging that its expansion has outpaced even his initial expectations.
