Bitcoin has shown signs of renewed strength in U.S. spot buying, as evidenced by the Coinbase Premium Index turning positive for the first time since late October. This index tracks the price difference between Coinbase and global markets, serving as an indicator of U.S. capital flows. Previous negative readings indicated domestic selling or risk aversion among U.S. institutions, while positive readings often occurred during periods of ETF inflows and stronger dollar liquidity.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $91,000 following a two-week stretch characterized by volatility and significant liquidations in derivatives markets. With U.S. prices surpassing global averages, traders are closely observing whether this upward momentum can sustain over the weekend.
The return of a positive Coinbase Premium could suggest increasing U.S. demand for Bitcoin, but experts caution that until prices convincingly breach key thresholds, the signal remains unconfirmed. For meaningful progress, a sustained positive premium would typically indicate stronger market conviction, although the lack of follow-through above critical price levels leaves uncertainty.
Data from spot and derivatives markets hint at increasing support across major trading platforms. Binance’s stablecoin balances have reached an all-time high of $51.1 billion, providing what traders term “dry powder” for potential further buying. Options desks have reported a resetting of positions, indicating that speculative longs were cleared out amid the mid-November downturn. Current market conditions show reduced extremes in skew, decreased downside hedging demand, and implied volatility settling closer to mid-range levels. This combination of factors suggests a healthier market environment, having flushed out aggressive leverage while moving away from one-sided positioning—conditions that often precede medium-term trends.
Analysis from research groups Kronos and Presto classified the recent bounce as a straightforward recovery from oversold conditions rather than a structural market shift. They observed significant improvements in market depth and two-way flows since last week’s lows.
Bitcoin’s position is precarious, situated between two critical price levels. Analysts note that the $90,000 mark, previously a significant reaction level, may now serve as resistance. For bullish momentum to regain trend, a clear break above $95,000 is essential. Should Bitcoin fail to achieve this clearance, the rebound could stagnate, potentially sliding back into the broad consolidation range that characterized much of November trading.
Most traders are closely monitoring the $87,000 mark below current spot prices, as a failure there could lead to renewed declines toward $80,000, where substantial liquidity resides. For the moment, it seems that buyers are attempting to protect the low-$90,000 range, although not with the confidence observed during earlier uptrends.
Investor sentiment has notably improved, with the sentiment index rising to 25, lifting the market out of “extreme fear,” yet it remains short of neutral territory. However, the breadth of gains is still limited; only one in seven large-cap tokens reported gains over the past 24 hours, reflecting a selective rebound despite the total cryptocurrency market cap holding steady at approximately $3.1 trillion.
Despite some signs of recovering demand, caution persists in the market, influenced by the leveraged washout witnessed in November. Derivatives traders are retreating from aggressive strategies, spot buyers are returning gradually, and stablecoin reserves suggest underlying demand. However, the charts indicate that the market is still in a phase of rebuilding rather than trending robustly.
Market observers will be keenly attuned to U.S. spot flows in the coming week. If the Coinbase Premium remains positive and liquidity continues to improve, Bitcoin may attempt to break into the high-$90,000 range. Conversely, if the premium slips back below zero, the recent rally could fade, leading the market into another range-bound period.
