A recent analysis released by CoinShares, a prominent digital asset manager, challenges the prevailing concerns regarding an imminent threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin’s security. The report asserts that only a minor portion of Bitcoin’s supply is genuinely at risk of being exploited in a manner that could provoke significant market disturbances.
CoinShares ranks as the fourth-largest manager of digital asset exchange-traded products globally, following BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity. The firm reports a commanding 34% market share within the Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region, with assets exceeding $10 billion as of September 2025.
The report disputes commonly referenced estimates suggesting that anywhere from 20% to 50% of all Bitcoin may eventually become susceptible to quantum computing, specifically in the context of key extraction. CoinShares argues that these assessments conflate theoretical vulnerabilities with actual risks that could lead to widespread compromise of Bitcoin assets.
Focusing on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses—where public keys are openly accessible on the blockchain—CoinShares estimates that approximately 1.6 million BTC, equating to about 8% of the total supply, are housed in these older address types. However, the firm contends that the subset of coins that could potentially cause “appreciable market disruption” if stolen is significantly lower, estimated at around 10,200 BTC. The remaining Bitcoin is dispersed across over 32,000 unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), with an average of 50 BTC each. This fragmentation makes them less appealing targets, requiring far more time and effort to hack, even under optimistic conditions.
The key takeaway from CoinShares’ findings is that while there is a theoretical risk of exposure, the actual concentration of potentially vulnerable Bitcoin is not concentrated in a few high-value targets but rather spread thinly across numerous smaller holdings. In the event of a quantum attack, the process would involve cracking numerous smaller pieces rather than an easy access point, making the operation less efficient and less profitable.
According to CoinShares, the technological requirements to break Bitcoin’s cryptography would necessitate fault-tolerant quantum systems vastly superior—by a factor of 100,000 times—to current capabilities. Ledger’s CTO, Charles Guillemet, highlighted that existing systems, such as Google’s Willow, which operates at 105 qubits, fall far short of what would be needed to compromise Bitcoin’s security.
Instead of viewing quantum risk as an immediate crisis, CoinShares advocates for a gradual shift toward post-quantum signatures, suggesting that Bitcoin can adapt to emerging threats over time. As the concerns surrounding quantum computing resurface amid fluctuating market conditions, the report indicates a significant divergence in views among Bitcoin developers. While many deem quantum threats as a distant issue, critics point to the lack of visible preparation efforts as harmful, especially with governments and major tech firms moving toward quantum-resistant solutions.
Proposals like BIP-360 aim to introduce new wallet formats to facilitate a gradual migration, highlighting a growing divide between developers and institutional investors seeking a robust long-term strategy. The conversation surrounding quantum risks in Bitcoin is ongoing, reflecting broader anxieties about structural vulnerabilities and the future of digital assets.
