The cryptocurrency market is displaying a cautious approach as it searches for new drivers of momentum following a recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin (BTC) has found itself within a narrow trading range, with the significant resistance level perched at $118,000, which bulls are aiming to surpass.
An uptick in open interest for bitcoin futures has been observed, jumping to 149,000 BTC and marking the end of a two-month downtrend. This increase hints at renewed capital flow into futures trading; however, the prevailing three-month annualized premium remains subdued, dropping below 10%. This situation may indicate that the inflows are predominantly on the bearish side.
In the broader altcoin market, there has been growing optimism as smaller tokens begin to rally. Over the past 24 hours, tokens such as IMX, NEAR, and HASH have surged above 10%, standing out as the only coins among the top 100 to achieve such gains. According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, traders are advised to exercise caution with their position sizes. He noted that institutional flows and substantial accumulation addresses bolster the bullish narrative, yet the record options open interest combined with dense supply near the $118,000 mark creates potential pinch points. Misir emphasizes the importance of managing leverage and suggested using $115,200 as a key price level to monitor, while keeping an eye on $118,000 for any breakout signals.
In terms of market dynamics, AVAX remains the sole cryptocurrency within the top 20 to showcase an increase in perpetual futures open interest over the last 24 hours. In sharp contrast, other major cryptocurrencies have experienced stagnant or negative open interest, suggesting capital outflows. Data from Glassnode indicates that there are approximately 5,000 BTC in long positions that could face liquidation should prices dip below $117,000. Additionally, a buildup of short positions at elevated price levels has emerged, reflecting a sell-on-rise mentality among traders.
Most of the major cryptocurrencies, with the exceptions of LINK, DOT, and TRX, have recorded net selling in futures trading, as highlighted by their negative cumulative volume deltas over the last 24 hours. This trend raises concerns about a potential sharp decline in altcoins, especially considering the prevailing risk aversion on Wall Street. The open interest for bitcoin futures traded on the CME has surged to 149,000 BTC, signaling a shift after a two-month downturn. The annualized three-month premium has also been declining, hinting at incoming fresh shorts. Meanwhile, ether’s futures open interest has once again exceeded 2 million ETH.
On Deribit, continued interest in put options linked to BTC suggests that traders remain wary of potential downsides. Recent flows on the OTC network Paradigm have shown activity in calendar spreads and put writing.
In token news, Aster, the token associated with its decentralized exchange, has seen a remarkable 33% increase in just the past 24 hours, contributing to an astonishing 650% gaining trajectory since its launch earlier this week. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has publicly endorsed the token on X, calling it a direct competitor to HyperLiquid’s HYPE. Notably, Aster has attracted nearly 330,000 wallets before its forthcoming exchange listings, with daily trading volume hitting $420 million. However, the platform has not escaped controversy; a member of the Aster team recently reassured users on Discord that “funds are safe,” addressing concerns regarding the withdrawal of funds. There have also been claims asserting that Aster is simply a rebranded version of Apollox, an established decentralized perpetuals exchange. Despite these challenges, Aster’s recent performance has captured the attention of traders, positioning it as a prospective alternative to HyperLiquid, which boasts a market capitalization of $18.7 billion compared to Aster’s $1 billion.
