A noticeable shift in global bitcoin market sentiment is becoming increasingly pronounced, with U.S. institutional investors maintaining their positions while overseas traders appear to be withdrawing. This trend is particularly evident in the futures markets, where the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) serves as a key platform for hedge funds and institutional trading in the United States. According to insights from Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, traders on CME are continuing to pay a premium to maintain long positions in bitcoin.
The premium in question is reflected in the one-month annualized basis—the difference in pricing between futures and spot markets—which remains notably higher on the CME than on Deribit, its offshore counterpart. Cipolaro noted that the significant decline in the offshore basis indicates a diminishing appetite for leveraged long exposure among non-U.S. traders. He highlighted that the widening gap between the CME and Deribit pricing can be seen as a real-time indicator of risk appetite based on geographical lines.
Earlier this month, bitcoin experienced a dip to around $60,000 before somewhat recovering. Some analysts attributed this sell-off to growing fears that advancements in quantum computing could jeopardize the cryptographic underpinnings of the cryptocurrency. However, research by NYDIG suggests that this explanation may not hold water. The firm found that bitcoin’s price movements have mirrored those of publicly traded quantum-computing firms such as IONQ Inc. and D-Wave Quantum Inc. If fears regarding quantum risks were genuinely influencing cryptocurrency markets, one would expect those stocks to rise as bitcoin falls; instead, both sectors have seen simultaneous declines, indicating a broader slump in interest for long-term, future-oriented investments.
Moreover, an analysis of search data from Google Trends indicates that inquiries into “quantum computing bitcoin” tend to increase when bitcoin prices are on the rise, further complicating the narrative surrounding the quantum computing debate and its alleged impact on the cryptocurrency market.
