Ethereum (ETH-USD) has recently surged to around $4,655, reflecting a gain of over 9% this week, positioning the cryptocurrency at a pivotal resistance point. This price movement comes after a period of volatile fluctuations, leading to a division within the market regarding whether Ethereum can reach its previous high of approximately $4,957 or if it will experience a pullback toward mid-range support levels.
The significant weekly increase can be attributed to a combination of technical factors, renewed interest from institutional investors, and the aggressive liquidation of leveraged short positions. With Bitcoin (BTC-USD) maintaining a price above $115,000, Ethereum is benefiting from an overall heightened risk appetite among investors. However, the key question remains: does the current momentum possess enough strength to propel ETH toward the much-anticipated $5,000 mark?
On the daily chart, Ethereum is evidently navigating within a clearly defined ascending channel, with its latest ascent reaching the $4,700–$4,800 range, a price point that has historically limited prior rallies. This resistance level correlates with the upper boundary of the established channel, marking it as one of the most significant levels to monitor this year. A confirmed daily close above $4,800 could substantially enhance the likelihood of a breakout towards $5,000. Conversely, a failure to maintain this upward momentum may see Ethereum retreat back into the $4,400–$4,200 range.
Shorter time frames display a bullish outlook as well, particularly on the 4-hour chart, which indicates that ETH has successfully emerged from a wedge pattern, pushing directly into overhead resistance. Momentum indicators are currently supportive— the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 67, which, although elevated, does not signal extreme overbought conditions. Additionally, the widening Bollinger Bands suggest that increased volatility may be on the horizon.
The recent upward movement in Ethereum’s price was further fueled by a notable short squeeze. After Ethereum surpassed certain local highs, many leveraged positions were forcefully liquidated, creating rapid upward momentum. This resulted in a reduction of liquidity above the resistance levels, leaving concentrated demand between $4,400 and $4,500. This area is becoming increasingly crucial: should Ethereum fail to maintain its push above $4,700, it may gravitate back towards this liquidity pool before any attempts at a new breakout.
From a derivatives perspective, more than $1.59 billion in short positions are at risk if Ethereum breaks decisively above $4,550. Conversely, a decline below $4,350 would jeopardize over $1 billion in long positions.
On the fundamental side, institutional demand appears to be a significant driving force behind Ethereum’s recent resilience. After experiencing outflows exceeding $780 million earlier, spot ETH ETFs have shifted direction, reporting $638 million in net inflows between September 8 and 12. This marks one of the strongest streaks of inflows seen in recent months, suggesting a renewed commitment from institutional investors. In addition, several corporations are now holding Ethereum as part of their treasury reserves. For instance, SharpLink has accumulated nearly 837,000 ETH, valued at over $3.7 billion, effectively reducing the circulating supply on exchanges.
Supporting this bullish narrative, on-chain metrics show a noticeable decline in Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR), which has fallen to 0.14, its lowest level of 2025. This indicator tracks the percentage of ETH held on centralized exchanges, with decreasing values signifying a movement towards long-term storage. Historically, similar trends have preceded major bullish rallies.
Moreover, Ethereum recently exhibited another golden cross, with its 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average. This pattern has often signaled the inauguration of strong bull markets in the past. For instance, such a crossover in November 2024 led to a near doubling of ETH’s price in a short span.
With support firmly positioned at $4,664— the level Ethereum reclaimed during its last push— any failure to hold this may expose the asset to further downside towards $4,387 and subsequently $4,200. Key resistance levels to monitor include $4,797, a Fibonacci retracement level, and $4,950, which is a critical psychological barrier just under the previous all-time high. A sustained breakout above $4,950 would likely prompt momentum traders to pursue price, potentially opening the path towards a range of $5,200 to $5,400.
In summary, given the current trading level of $4,655, declining exchange supply, increasing ETF inflows, and the confirmation of a golden cross, the risk-reward assessment leans bullishly for Ethereum. The critical support level at $4,664 must hold to maintain buyer control, while breakout potential above $4,800 could accelerate a move toward $5,000 and potentially beyond. Consequently, Ethereum (ETH-USD) receives a favorable Buy rating, with near-term targets set at $4,950 and more ambitious medium-term goals extending above $5,200.
