Ethereum’s recent performance has revealed a challenging market dynamic, as the cryptocurrency struggles to surpass the critical resistance level of $3,300. Currently trading around $3,115, Ethereum has experienced a minor decline of 0.7% over the last 24 hours, although it has risen by 3% in the past week. In the previous week, the token oscillated between $3,008 and $3,293, highlighting significant price fluctuations. Nonetheless, the price remains significantly lower—approximately 37%—from its peak of $4,946 observed in August 2025.
The modest increase in spot trade volume, which edged up by 0.7% to reach $23 billion, indicates a waning confidence among buyers amid prevailing market calmness. In contrast, the derivatives markets provide a mixed picture. According to CoinGlass statistics, trading volume in this sector has risen by 3.8% to $73 billion; however, open interest has declined by 1.4% to $40 billion. Such disparities typically suggest that existing positions are being unwound rather than new, leveraged trades being initiated, reflecting a hesitance among traders.
Recent on-chain analysis from CryptoOnchain highlights a slowdown in demand within the U.S. market. The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Gap has deepened, with its 14-day moving average dipping to -2.29—signifying a drop to its lowest level since early February 2025. This metric contrasts prices on Coinbase, deemed a proxy for U.S. institutional trading, against Binance’s global retail pricing. A negative reading indicates that buying activity on Coinbase is decreasing.
Historically, positive gaps have been essential for sustaining market uptrends, a trend that appears absent at this moment. In alignment with this sentiment, U.S. spot Ether Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have reported a significant net outflow of $51.5 million—marking the second consecutive day of withdrawals that exacerbate bearish sentiment among investors. Such flow patterns contribute to a general caution within the market, perpetuating concerns about potential downward risks.
Technical analysis offers a cautious outlook on Ethereum’s short-term prospects. Daily charts indicate that highs are consistently diminishing, with the token struggling to breach the 50-day moving average, currently near $3,260—a barrier that stifles momentum for further gains. The cryptocurrency is positioned within the middle of the Bollinger Bands, having recently been rejected at the upper band, which aligns with the key $3,300 resistance level. The narrowing width of the bands suggests rising volatility; however, it lacks a definitive trend direction. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 53, indicating a neutral stance after bouncing back from oversold territory. However, the presence of smaller green candles signifies weak bullish conviction.
Should the market manage to close above $3,300, there is potential for prices to increase toward the $3,500-$3,600 range. Conversely, sustained trading below this threshold may lead to a reevaluation towards support levels between $3,000 and $3,050, with the looming risk of selling pressure intensifying around the $2,800 mark. Current buyer activity indicates a selective approach, with few willing to pursue new entries without strong enticements.
Overall, the diminishing Coinbase Premium paints a picture of reducing institutional interest in the U.S., thereby exerting pressure on short-term ETH positions, even as global market conditions remain relatively stable. Analysts from CryptoOnchain suggest the negative gap illustrates a trend of increased selling activity on Coinbase, reinforcing the belief that a breakout remains unlikely unless demand picks up. ETF outflows further complicate the derivatives landscape, creating a consolidation phase leaning towards bearish sentiment. Traders are keenly searching for signs of recovery in the U.S. spot market, yet existing data implies that prices are likely to remain within a constrained range, displaying a downward bias. As Ethereum’s market performance stalls, long-term holders face an increasingly competitive landscape, though sufficient liquidity may prevent substantial downturns.
