A prominent figure in the cryptocurrency world is suggesting that 2026 could be a good year for investors, despite historical trends indicating otherwise. This commentary comes in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent surge, where it briefly crossed the $126,000 threshold on October 6, according to CoinMarketCap, before retracting approximately 9% by October 13. As investors look towards the latter part of 2025 and into 2026, questions surrounding the sustainability of Bitcoin’s price movements are at the forefront.
Historically, Bitcoin has displayed a concerning pattern, experiencing significant price crashes roughly every four years—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—with declines of 61%, 73%, and 64% respectively. This trend suggests that another substantial crash, potentially around 66%, could occur in 2026. The consistent timing of these crashes has led many to treat them as predictable punctuations in the cryptocurrency’s lifespan.
Investors familiar with the markets often caution against trying to time market movements. Legendary investor Peter Lynch famously noted how difficult it can be to get the timing correct. Yet Bitcoin operates under mechanics that distinguish it from stocks, leading to somewhat predictable four-year cycles based on its supply and demand dynamics.
Bitcoin’s creation is tied to mining, where miners receive rewards in the form of newly minted coins. Every 210,000 blocks, this reward is halved, a process known as Bitcoin halving that typically occurs every four years. This halving reduces the circulating supply of Bitcoin, and historically, rising prices before and after such events reflect the increased demand that outpaces supply. However, this also leads to periods where supply growth is stunted, resulting in substantial price corrections.
The most recent halving occurred in 2024, and historically, prices have increased in the years following these events. Yet, the anticipated pattern suggests that 2026 may follow suit with another significant downturn, as it has in previous cycles.
Despite this historical backdrop, some industry voices are asserting that the usual cycle may be shifting. Cryptocurrency entrepreneur Arthur Hayes argues that the last significant crash corresponded with changes in monetary policy—specifically, a contraction in the M2 money supply, which subsequently strengthened the U.S. dollar and discouraged investments in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Hayes contends that the financial environment for 2026 is poised to be more favorable for Bitcoin. With M2 money supply on the rise and projected decreases in interest rates, there may be renewed investor interest in Bitcoin that could disrupt its traditional cyclical behavior. Some market watchers speculate that Hayes may have a significant stake in Bitcoin, which adds a personal dimension to his optimistic outlook.
Further underpinning this potential for a break in the historical cycle is Bitcoin’s current stature in the market. From its origins with a market cap of less than $10 billion in 2014, Bitcoin has since ballooned to approximately $2.3 trillion, capturing the attention of institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds. This increased legitimacy could create enough demand to keep Bitcoin’s price stable, defying the typical cyclical downturn.
While caution remains about the likelihood of Bitcoin experiencing a downturn in 2026, the evolving financial landscape and the cryptocurrency’s broader acceptance present an intriguing case for its potential resilience. Observers maintain that whether the historical cycle will persist or be interrupted remains a pivotal question as investors consider their strategy moving forward.
