Bitcoin’s recent performance has been modest, with monthly gains limited to just 2.2%. However, analysts are optimistic that February could signal a potential bullish shift for the cryptocurrency. Historical data reveals that the week ending February 21 has been particularly favorable for Bitcoin, boasting a median return of 8.4% and a successful closing rate of 60%.
The month of February has consistently shown a strong performance, with a median weekly return of 7%, outpacing even the traditionally robust October. Analysts have observed that the first three weeks of February often set the tone for the year, with early February serving as a precursor to bearish trends seen in 2018, 2022, and the anticipated patterns for 2025.
Network economist Timothy Peterson emphasized February’s reputation as a solid bullish month for Bitcoin, occasionally overshadowing the well-known “Uptober” effect in the fourth quarter. He attributes this trend primarily to macroeconomic factors rather than influences specific to the cryptocurrency market. Mid-February is particularly notable, as it coincides with the release of full-year corporate earnings and optimistic forward guidance, typically encouraging investors to adopt a more risk-on approach. Peterson remarked, “The two-week period for Feb 7-21 features a median weekly return of >= 7% per week!”
Peterson also pointed out that while corrective years have historically shown mixed initial trends, they often culminate in declines. Specifically, Bitcoin gained 4% in early 2018 but retreated in subsequent years—falling 3% in 2022 and 5% in 2025—each of which ultimately saw Bitcoin close lower. As market volatility eases, he contends that Bitcoin could be positioned for a rebound, especially if macroeconomic stress indicators, such as the CBOE’s volatility index (VIX), stabilize.
In terms of long-term potential, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With forecasts a significant ceiling for Bitcoin by 2026, predicting potential peak prices between $210,000 to $300,000. While his model does not provide specific timing, its price bands have historically shown reliability. The long-term positive outlook is corroborated by recent momentum data. Sina, from the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, indicates that Bitcoin’s momentum has turned favorable despite recent market corrections. He notes that the ongoing consolidation since early January has preserved the overall flow structure.
This recent sell-off, linked to the Nasdaq’s decline amid renewed U.S. tariff tensions, reflects global news influences rather than a crisis within Bitcoin itself. XWIN Research supports this view, asserting that Bitcoin remains within a consolidation phase rather than signaling a definitive risk-off trend. Though elevated long-term bond yields are hindering valuation expansion, the rising Realized Cap indicates that spot-based capital continues to enter the network. The dynamic suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamentals for Bitcoin remain robust.
