Jurien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, has recently adjusted his outlook on Bitcoin, a shift that aligns him with a growing number of financial strategists expressing bearish sentiments about the cryptocurrency. Timmer, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin, highlights the asset’s historical four-year cycle as a crucial factor influencing his revised stance.
In Timmer’s analysis, Bitcoin has followed a discernible pattern over the years, one that is increasingly echoing previous cycles. He emphasizes that the recent all-time high of nearly $125,000, reached after around 145 months of cumulative gains, fits well into this established framework. Timmer notes that Bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as “winters,” typically span about a year, leading him to speculate that 2026 might be a period of stagnation for Bitcoin, following the conclusion of the current halving-driven cycle.
Despite his concerns, Timmer maintains his long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin. However, he cautions that the cryptocurrency may have concluded another four-year halving phase, both in terms of price and time. He expressed these views on X, encouraging a visual comparison of past bull markets, reinforcing that the recent October high aligns closely with historical data.
Furthermore, Timmer identifies critical support levels for Bitcoin, placing them between $65,000 and $75,000. He contrasts Bitcoin’s trajectory with that of gold, which he expects to perform strongly in 2025 while Bitcoin could experience a downturn. With gold currently in a bull market—reportedly up around 65% year-to-date—he points to its resilience during market corrections as indicative of its bullish characteristics. Timmer does not foresee a near-term mean reversion between gold and Bitcoin, as gold continues to outperform in an environment marked by global money supply growth.
