A former analyst at the Bank of England, Helen McCaw, has raised significant concerns about the potential economic implications of a disclosure regarding extraterrestrial life in a letter to the bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey. McCaw, who has a background in financial security and was involved in planning for various economic crises, argues that such a revelation—especially in light of increasing credible claims from high-level government officials about Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)—warrants advanced economic preparations.
Recent predictions suggest the likelihood of such a disclosure is more plausible than before. A betting market, Polymarket, currently estimates a 12% chance that the U.S. government will confirm the existence of alien life by 2027, despite the low trading volume associated with those odds. Prominent figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand have increasingly spoken about the UFO phenomenon. Their discussions culminate in the documentary “Age of Disclosure,” directed by Dan Farah, who expresses a belief that a U.S. president will eventually disclose information regarding extraterrestrials.
McCaw believes that an official announcement of alien life could induce widespread “ontological shock” among the public. In her letter, she warns of potential financial instability resulting from extreme market volatility, as traders grapple with how to value assets in the wake of such unprecedented information. She suggests that the ensuing uncertainty could lead to a collapse in confidence across financial markets, with a scenario in which clear evidence of extraterrestrial life could disrupt traditional market mechanisms.
In exploring possible outcomes of this disclosure, McCaw highlights a potential surge toward alternative assets such as bitcoin. She notes that if trust in governmental and traditional financial structures erodes, individuals may flock to digital currencies as a safe haven. Conversely, she discusses two differing potential impacts on gold: while it could be viewed as an alternative store of value, fear regarding future space-based mining projects could also lead to a significant devaluation of the metal.
This notion of gold facing a large decrease in value due to potential mining opportunities in space echoes arguments made by bitcoin proponents, including the Winklevoss twins. Despite current assessments stating that space mining is not economically feasible, NASA initiated a research mission targeting a metal-rich asteroid this year.
While bitcoin has mechanisms in place, such as its difficulty adjustment algorithm, that prevent a drastic increase in supply, McCaw points to broader concerns, including social attacks on the network and the emerging threat of quantum computing. Developers in the bitcoin community are reportedly already working on proposals to counteract any future vulnerabilities.
The insights shared by McCaw signal a notable departure from conventional economic modeling, urging policymakers and financial experts to consider the unexpected way that extraordinary revelations might reshape our understanding of value, trust, and stability in the global economy.
