On Friday, global markets are poised to experience a significant event known as quadruple witching, which occurs quarterly and involves the simultaneous expiration of four major types of derivatives. This event takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, affecting stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures. The coinciding expirations typically lead to increased trading activity and heightened price swings across traditional markets as traders rush to close, roll over, or settle their positions.
Though specific figures for the March 2026 expiration remain undisclosed, insights from previous events highlight the magnitude of this occurrence. For instance, during the March 2025 quadruple witching, approximately $4.7 trillion worth of equity and index derivatives expired, which facilitated the highest trading volume of the S&P 500 for that year. Historical data also indicates that past witching days yielded above-average trading activity.
This quarter’s witching event arrives amidst an already tumultuous trading environment, characterized by escalating tensions in the Middle East that have pushed oil prices to $120 per barrel. Concurrently, gold prices slipped below $4,600, and Bitcoin saw a decline below $69,000. Additionally, the VIX volatility index soared above 35 last week, marking the highest level in a year and reflecting increased stress within financial markets.
The phenomenon of quadruple witching, while rooted in traditional finance, often spills over into the cryptocurrency sector. Given that Bitcoin has started to trade in accordance with broader risk assets, significant movements in equities can influence the digital currency markets. Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, expressed that the forthcoming event could escalate volatility within crypto markets. He noted, “Quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire,” and pointed out that the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility (BVIV) Index has already been trending higher in anticipation of the event.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s performance during previous quadruple witching days in 2025 provides useful insights. On March 21, for instance, Bitcoin was slightly down during the event, but it hit a notable low a few weeks later at around $76,000 following the market’s reaction to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. On June 20, Bitcoin fell by 1.5%, and shortly afterward, it reached a local bottom of approximately $98,000. On September 19, it experienced a decline of over 1% for the day, but a significant drop followed the week later, with values plummeting from $177,000 to $108,000. Conversely, on December 19, Bitcoin closed about 3% higher at around $85,000, although it remained in a wider downtrend from its October peaks.
Despite the relatively subdued price action on the actual day of quadruple witching, a pattern of weakness in the subsequent days to weeks has been consistently observed.
Adding to the complexity, crypto traders will have another important event to watch, as a major quarterly crypto derivatives expiration is scheduled for March 27, with $13.5 billion set to expire on Deribit. Current positioning suggests a heightened demand for volatility strategies rather than strong directional bets, which could further influence market dynamics in the coming days.
