In a bullish forecast for gold, experts predict that the metal is set to rise to $3,800 (approximately Rs 134,000) in the upcoming months. Praveen Singh, a Senior Fundamental Research Analyst specializing in Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, emphasizes that investors should consider purchasing gold on price dips rather than chasing current upward momentum.
As of the latest reports, spot gold is trading at $3,682, reflecting an increase of around 1% on that day. This surge follows the metal’s peak of $3,685, a record that surpassed its prior high of $3,674 set earlier in September. This spike in gold prices can be attributed to a weaker-than-expected report regarding job growth, which revealed a substantial downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the twelve months leading to March 2025. In the Indian market, the MCX October gold contract is also showing positive trends, increasing by about 0.90% to Rs 110,294.
Recent macroeconomic data, particularly from China, has added to investor anxiety. Retail sales growth fell to 3.4% in August, down from 3.7% in July and below the anticipated 3.8%. Furthermore, fixed-asset investment growth saw a worrying deceleration to 0.5%, marking one of the worst readings on record outside the pandemic period. Industrial production figures reflected similarly disappointing trends, recording a 5.2% increase, the smallest since August 2024.
In European trade, there are signs of an economic slowdown, with the goods trade surplus with the U.S. declining from €11.20 billion in June to €10.70 billion in July, potentially impacting GDP growth in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the U.S. Empire State manufacturing index also disappointed, showing a negative reading of -8.70 compared to an expected positive figure.
On the diplomatic front, U.S.-China negotiations are ongoing in Madrid, focusing on critical issues such as trade and national security. A consensus has reportedly been reached regarding TikTok, and a possible phone call between leaders Xi and Trump is in the pipeline. Concurrently, Indian and U.S. officials are set to discuss trade matters in New Delhi, aiming to resolve various trading discrepancies.
As for the U.S. Dollar Index, which stood at 97.30, it fell by nearly 0.30% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s impending monetary policy decision on September 17. Analysts foresee a possible interest rate cut of 25 basis points, though some speculate the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, largely dependent on forthcoming U.S. retail sales data.
From a broader perspective, gold has surpassed its inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980, when it reached $850, a level now equivalent to approximately $3,590 today. Additionally, global gold ETF holdings are at their highest since November 2022, with an increase of 365 tons this year, marking a 14.19% rise year-to-date.
Fitch Ratings recently downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating, citing internal political tensions and the risks of delayed fiscal reforms as contributing factors to the reassessment. Upcoming economic reports from both the Eurozone and the United States are poised to impact market sentiment and investor behavior, particularly with significant data releases anticipated this week.
As optimistic projections for gold persist, the key support levels are identified at $3,600 (Rs 107,900), $3,550 (Rs 106,400), and $3,500 (Rs 104,900), while resistance is noted at $3,700 (Rs 110,900). Investment strategies favor acquiring gold during price dips rather than entering at the top of the market rally, suggesting a cautious approach as economic indicators evolve.
