Hedera’s HBAR has shown a muted recovery in recent trading sessions but remains constrained by prevailing cautious sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin and macroeconomic conditions is capping any potential upside movements for HBAR.
Currently, HBAR is facing strong bearish positioning within the futures market, with a significant number of short contracts opened by traders anticipating further declines. The liquidation map indicates that positions are predominantly skewed towards bearish traders. Notably, data reveals that HBAR bears could see around $4.9 million in liquidations if the price surpasses the $0.1143 threshold, which could lead to rapid upside volatility if shorts are forced to cover their positions.
Insights from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator indicate changing dynamics in capital movement. This indicator measures the inflows and outflows of capital to determine whether buyers or sellers dominate the market. Although the CMF is currently rising, it remains around the zero line. This upward trend suggests that capital outflows are balanced with inflows, but as inflows begin to rise and outflows decline, HBAR could gain the necessary support for a short-term recovery.
Furthermore, correlation trends suggest a potential shift in HBAR’s market behavior. The altcoin’s correlation with Bitcoin has decreased, with the current coefficient at 0.09, indicating weaker alignment with the leading cryptocurrency. A reduced correlation could be advantageous for altcoins during periods of Bitcoin uncertainty, potentially allowing HBAR to follow an independent recovery path based on specific investor demand.
At the moment, HBAR is trading at around $0.1019, remaining above the crucial support level of $0.0961, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Yet, it faces resistance at $0.1035, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level. A breakthrough above this resistance could catalyze a short-term rally for HBAR. If the price manages to flip $0.1035 into support, the altcoin could then target $0.1109 at the 61.8% Fibonacci level—an important support area that could encourage stronger buying among investors.
Achieving this breakthrough would also push HBAR past the critical liquidation level of $0.1143. Sustained momentum could further propel HBAR towards $0.1215 and $0.1349, helping to recover some of the asset’s year-to-date losses.
However, should bullish signals fail to develop, continued consolidation may be on the horizon. Persistent outflows would likely restrict any breakout efforts, with a drop below the $0.0961 support level exposing HBAR to further declines towards the $0.0870 mark. Such a move would invalidate the near-term bullish outlook, reinforcing the existing bearish trend.
