Recent developments in the cryptocurrency Hedera (HBAR) suggest a significant transition from a distribution phase to the early stages of a bullish trend. This shift is characterized by a series of technical indicators, including a breakout, a support flip, and the establishment of a higher highs-higher lows formation.
Key factors contributing to HBAR’s bullish momentum include an influx of volume and leverage. Notably, Hedera witnessed a marked volume expansion during its rebound phase, coinciding with the announcement that FedEx, a major player in global logistics, has joined Hedera’s council. Spot trading volume surged over 43%, surpassing $200 million, while the price rose by 7%, successfully reclaiming key moving averages. This price action indicates a strong conviction among buyers and points to organic accumulation, rather than speculative trading, beginning from the $0.09 support level.
Additionally, the recent rally aligns with the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The rising volume into the neckline break added credibility to this bullish pattern, suggesting its validity and potential for continued upward movement.
Derivatives data further supports this bullish outlook. Futures Open Interest increased by 9%, reaching nearly $29 million between February 11 and 12. Simultaneously, funding rates turned positive at +0.05%, indicating that leveraged positions were being aggressively taken by bulls. Although leverage amplifies upward momentum, it also introduces risks associated with crowding. Elevated positioning could lead to significant price squeezes if demand remains strong, but it also heightens vulnerability to pullbacks if spot demand diminishes.
As of now, HBAR is facing macroeconomic pressures, trading below a descending trendline originating from its peak of $0.21 in November 2025. Despite ongoing selling pressures maintaining a lower-high structure, demand is re-emerging around the $0.078 support level. Buyers are now targeting the $0.10 to $0.104 supply band following a breakout of the short-term market structure between $0.090 and $0.102.
For HBAR to solidify its bullish trajectory, sustained closes above the $0.10 mark are essential. Such a move would likely lead buyers to focus on the $0.11 to $0.134 resistance corridor, validating the breakout and extending the higher-low sequence. Conversely, repeated rejections near the $0.104 to $0.107 range suggest active selling pressure. If sellers succeed in pushing prices back below $0.098 to $0.10, this could invalidate the breakout, potentially leading to a retracement toward the $0.090 level or a test of the $0.078 demand floor.
Currently, HBAR’s market position stands at a critical juncture, where sustained price action above the supply level will be pivotal in determining whether bullish momentum will strengthen or decline.
