Health care costs are on the verge of significant increases for millions of Americans, with Texans likely facing rates well above the national average. This alarming trend stems from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at the end of the year, which helped keep health insurance plans affordable for many. Without Congressional action to extend these credits, experts warn that premiums could skyrocket in the next year.
Texas, notably one of the ten states that did not expand Medicaid during the 2012 legislation, relies heavily on residents purchasing private insurance through the federal marketplace. As open enrollment for health insurance approaches, set to begin on November 4, concerns about “sticker shock” are mounting. The Texas Association of Health Plans anticipates average premiums to soar nationwide by approximately 75%, while in Texas, that figure is expected to exceed a staggering 115%. For families, this translates to a potential increase in monthly costs from around $1,600 to more than $3,400.
Currently, about 3.3 million Texans obtain health insurance independently, with nearly a million relying solely on the expanded tax credits for coverage. Analysts fear that the absence of these financial supports will lead many individuals to forgo health insurance altogether. Blake Hutson from the Texas Association of Health Plans expressed concern for those who would experience dramatic increases: “When those tax credits go away, those Texans that were able to come into the market and get that affordable coverage, they’re gonna find that their coverage is now a lot more expensive, in most cases about double.”
Stephen Love, president and CEO of the DFW Hospital Council, echoed this sentiment, explaining that the uncertainty surrounding potential tax credit renewal has already compelled insurance carriers to adjust their premiums. Since the introduction of the tax credits, the number of Texans with health insurance has significantly increased, rising from about one million to four million. Unfortunately, Texas maintains the highest rate of uninsured residents in the nation, currently estimated at around 17%. Officials warn that it could surpass 20% as insurance becomes unaffordable for many.
This potential rise in the uninsured population carries dire implications for public health. Love noted that the increased numbers of uninsured individuals would inevitably overcrowd emergency rooms, leading to what he termed the “wrong setting” for primary care. He warned that hospitals might struggle to collect reimbursement for services rendered.
In light of these challenges, Texans are urged to approach the upcoming open enrollment period with caution. They are encouraged to explore all available options, including any remaining tax credits that might still help make health insurance plans more accessible. “You may still find a plan that’s affordable for you. There are still tax credits that do exist,” Hutson advised.
Open enrollment will run through January 15, and unless Congress acts to renew the enhanced tax credits, the impending price hikes will become effective for the 2026 plan year. The information in this report has been sourced from the Texas Association of Health Plans and the DFW Hospital Council.
