Hedera, a proof-of-stake blockchain utilizing hashgraph consensus, continues to position itself as a formidable player in the enterprise-grade speed and security sector. With a governing council that includes high-profile entities such as Google, IBM, Boeing, and Deutsche Telekom, Hedera aims to establish itself as a cornerstone of institutional infrastructure for tokenized finance and the settlement of real-world assets.
Currently, Hedera is trading at approximately $0.0925, reflecting a significant 52% decline over the past year. The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36.59, suggesting that the price movement is nearing oversold levels. Additionally, the price remains below all major moving averages, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.10239, the 50-day EMA at $0.1135, and the 100-day EMA at $0.13184. The Supertrend indicator, positioned at $0.11009, confirms the prevailing bearish momentum in the market.
Currently testing a key support level near $0.09—the lowest price point since early 2025—Hedera faces critical challenges ahead. A potential breakdown below the $0.085 threshold could push the price down to $0.075, thereby extinguishing any hopes for a recovery in the near term.
Despite the downturn, Hedera demonstrated significant institutional adoption in 2025, processing more than $10 billion in real-world asset (RWA) settlements. This milestone made Hedera the leading blockchain for real-world asset developer activity. Notable collaborations have emerged, including the UK’s Lloyds Banking Group and Aberdeen utilizing tokenized money market funds as collateral in foreign exchange trades. Furthermore, the Georgian Ministry of Justice is assessing the potential of a national real estate registry on the Hedera network, joining existing initiatives like Dubai’s land registry.
In addition, the Australian Digital Dollar recently launched on Hedera, further establishing its credentials within the enterprise sector. Partnerships with major companies like Repsol, PwC, and NATO’s DIANA program further validate its capabilities for enterprise-level applications.
The recent launch of the Canary Capital HBAR ETF on the NYSE, which holds approximately 473 million tokens—about 1% of Hedera’s total supply—has sparked interest. Inflows into this ETF remain modest when compared to those in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but anticipated decisions from the SEC regarding Grayscale and other filings could pave the way for expanded accessibility in 2026.
Looking ahead to year-end 2026, forecasts for Hedera suggest a price range of $0.2 to $0.5, with a median target of $0.35. These projections assume that ETF approvals materialize, sovereign use cases go live, and RWA tokenization increases substantially from $10 billion to between $15 and $20 billion. A recovery of Bitcoin prices to the range of $110,000 to $130,000 would also be a significant factor.
Key resistance levels to monitor include $0.10239, $0.11009, and $0.11350, while a move above $0.115 could indicate a trend reversal, targeting higher levels at $0.13184 and $0.15531. However, the real challenge for Hedera lies in converting enterprise pilot projects into fully operational deployments that generate ongoing demand for HBAR. If enterprises continue to utilize prepaid accounts that do not transact HBAR on-chain, the price may remain under pressure despite overall adoption trends.
Investors should keep a close eye on ETF inflow data, as additional approvals could quickly impact liquidity. Watching the scaling of RWA settlement volumes—from the current $10 billion towards $15–$20 billion—will also be crucial. Furthermore, monitoring enterprise conversion rates, particularly with organizations like Tata Communications, Shinhan Bank, and NHS, is essential to gauge the sustainability of transaction volumes.
Analyst Viktoras Karapetjanc highlighted the current disconnect in Hedera’s valuation, noting, “Hedera at $0.09 with Fortune 500 validation and $10 billion in RWA settlements is a disconnect. If ETF approvals hit and enterprise pilots convert to production, $0.35 is realistic—but without on-chain demand, this stays trapped below $0.12.”
As the crypto market continues to fluctuate, with total capitalization hovering around $2.59 trillion and a recent 1.53% decline in the past 24 hours, the future performance of Hedera will likely depend on a complex interplay between institutional adoption, market conditions, and broader cryptocurrency trends.
