Hedera is on the brink of a significant movement that traders have anticipated for months, as recent price actions, ETF demand, and spot flows appear to be aligning after a series of unsuccessful attempts to rally. Analysts suggest that this moment is distinct, not only due to the specific chart patterns emerging but also because of the timing of market conditions.
Currently, Hedera is exhibiting a clear W formation, commonly known as a double bottom, on its daily chart. This bullish structure forms when the price tests a support level multiple times without breaking below it, indicating that sellers are losing their grip on the market. In Hedera’s case, the $0.102 level has consistently served as a supportive floor, drawing buyers every time the price returns to it. The price has made attempts to rise toward the $0.135 area, which is viewed as the neckline of this W pattern. A successful breakout above this neckline could potentially lead to a projected rise of around 31%, targeting levels near $0.176.
However, previous attempts to rally have faltered at this critical resistance point. Each rebound this year has been met with challenges as Hedera has struggled to reclaim significant exponential moving averages (EMAs). EMAs give greater weight to recent price movements and help traders differentiate between corrective moves and genuine trend changes. Earlier this year, Hedera managed to reclaim the 20-day EMA, which prompted brief spurts of 8% to 16% in price; however, those gains were short-lived as the price failed to surpass the 50-day EMA.
The convergence of the W pattern and the moving averages at the same resistance level adds importance to the current setup. A break above the $0.135 mark would not only indicate the completion of the W pattern but would also signify the first clean reclaim of the 50-day EMA in weeks. This underscores the significance of underlying demand in the current market setup.
In terms of demand, Hedera has recently reported its strongest ETF inflow week of 2026, ending January 16, with net inflows reaching around $1.46 million. This inflow is notable as it reflects a steady capital influx that helps mitigate supply during consolidation periods, rather than simply chasing breakouts. The trend in ETF demand is mirrored in the spot market as well, with net spot outflows increasing dramatically from approximately $882,000 to $2.22 million in just a day, indicating a heightened interest in buying rather than selling.
The alignment of rising ETF inflows and spot outflows is critical, as this demand is appearing prior to a potential breakout rather than in response to one. The ongoing ETF week will conclude on January 23, making the next round of data essential. Should inflows remain positive, it would affirm that institutional demand is building; on the contrary, stalled flows might imply lingering caution among buyers.
Momentum indicators are also showing signs that support a bullish outlook. Since December 31, Hedera’s price has formed a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is poised to print a higher low. This divergence suggests decreasing selling pressure. The bullish divergence remains contingent on the price sustaining above the $0.102 level. A breach below this point would invalidate the divergence and the W pattern, increasing downside risks.
If Hedera can successfully move higher, eyes will be on the $0.118 area, which denotes the recovery of the 20-day EMA, followed by the more crucial $0.127 level, where the 50-day EMA is located. Clearing this level not only transforms former resistance into support but also opens pathways toward targets of $0.135, $0.152, and eventually $0.176.
With a solid foundation established and improving market dynamics, all attention now pivots to the pivotal resistance posed by the 50-day EMA. Investors and traders are closely monitoring these developments as the potential for growth hangs in the balance.
