The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised its forecasts for renewable energy growth in the United States, halving its earlier expectations for the decade. Initially, the agency anticipated the addition of 500 gigawatts (GW) in new capacity by 2030, primarily from solar and wind sources. This forecast has now been adjusted to just 250 GW, reflecting the nuanced impact of current U.S. policies on global energy transition efforts.
In a broader context, the IEA’s latest assessments indicate a historical shift in energy production. In the first half of 2025, renewables surpassed coal globally for the first time, generating 5,072 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared to coal’s 4,896 TWh. Sonia Dunlop, the chief executive of the Global Solar Council, heralded this moment as a “historic shift” in the energy landscape.
The data also reveals a rise in renewable energy growth forecasts for India by 10%, positioning the country as the second-largest market for renewable energy growth after China. Moreover, the IEA has raised its expectations for the Middle East and North Africa by 23%, largely due to Saudi Arabia’s aggressive deployment of wind and solar technologies.
Despite positive developments in regions such as India and the Middle East, the slowdown in the U.S. and a tempered outlook for China have led the IEA to lower its overall global renewables growth expectations by about 5% to 4,608 GW by 2030. This total still falls short of an ambitious target of 11,000 GW set by world leaders during the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai two years prior.
The agency has emphasized that nearly 80% of the projected global growth in renewable energy will be attributed to solar power, supported by decreasing costs and more efficient permitting processes. However, challenges remain, including rising instances of negative pricing and the curtailment of renewable energy—where plants must divert from producing energy because transmission capacities are not sufficient. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stressed the need for policymakers to address supply chain security and grid integration obstacles.
A notable factor influencing the U.S. outlook has been the changes associated with President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has accelerated the phasing out of tax credits for green energy projects and suspended permits for wind and solar installations on federal lands and waters. As a consequence, the IEA projected that renewable capacity additions in the U.S. would peak in 2027, followed by a decline in growth through 2030.
In contrast, although the IEA has revised its growth forecast for China’s renewable sector downward by 5%, it noted that the country still accounts for nearly 60% of global renewable capacity growth. China is on track to meet its targets for wind and solar power five years ahead of schedule, by 2035.
The significance of these developments is underscored by the ongoing transition in the global energy sector, as countries navigate the complex interplay between policy, business interests, and climate commitments. The implications of these trends extend beyond borders, as the world increasingly looks to renewables in its fight against climate change, inherently linked to fossil fuel emissions.
