As we approach the final quarter of 2025, analysts are noting significant trends that may substantially impact crypto traders. Seasonal patterns in the market suggest a bullish outlook for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two most prominent cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Historical data since 2013 reveals that Bitcoin typically experiences an impressive average return of 85% during the final quarter, making it a historically favorable period for bullish behavior. November, in particular, has been highlighted as the most beneficial month for BTC, boasting an average gain of 46%, while October also tends to see an increase of around 21%. Ethereum follows suit with favorable performance trends towards the end of the year, although its strongest returns have generally been observed in the first quarter.
Despite these seasonal advantages, Bitcoin has experienced a recent downturn, with a 5% drop observed in the past week. This price decline raises concerns about further losses, potentially testing support at late August lows around $107,300. Should the bulls fail to defend this level, the focus may shift to the critical 200-day simple moving average at approximately $104,200. However, many remain optimistic, noting that as long as Bitcoin stays above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA)—currently around $98,900—there may still be a bullish outlook for the market. This SMA has consistently proven to be a vital support level throughout the current bull run that commenced in early 2023.
On a different front, Ripple’s XRP, often viewed as a distinct entity within the crypto landscape, has surged by 32% this year. Although this rally is notable, XRP remains trapped in a long-standing sideways trading range against Bitcoin, indicating limited relative strength. The XRP/BTC trading pair indicates a period of low volatility, but recent price movements near the upper boundary of this range might signal that bulls are beginning to assert control. A breakout from this prolonged consolidation could unlock significant upward movement for XRP against Bitcoin.
However, not all signals are positive. The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) is currently flashing bullish indicators, having climbed to a five-month high and forming a potentially bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. While this could indicate an upward reversal for the ETF, it may also signal bearish trends for both Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder.
In addition, the dollar index has demonstrated resilience following a recent Federal Reserve rate cut. Establishing a double bottom around 96.30 could pave the way for further gains, with movements above 100.26 confirming a bullish breakout. However, a failure below 96.00 may escalate risk-taking behavior across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
Lastly, Nvidia (NVDA), recognized as a leading marker for risk assets, is nearing the upper end of a broadening channel that has defined its price action since mid-2024. The stall at the upper trendline signals potential exhaustion in its bullish run, with declines from this level possibly indicating a shift towards a risk-off sentiment in the broader market, including the crypto sector.
Traders are advised to keep a close watch on these developments, as the crypto market continues to evolve in a complex landscape influenced by historical trends, technical signals, and macroeconomic factors.
