The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing a period of indecision, with intraday bias remaining neutral. Traders are closely monitoring two key resistance and support levels: 1.1819 and 1.1390, respectively. As long as the resistance at 1.1819 holds, there is a preference for further declines. A significant break below the support level of 1.1644, coupled with sustained trading under the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits at 1.1679, would confirm a medium-term bearish outlook. This scenario could signal a top at 1.1917, particularly in light of bearish divergence observed in the daily MACD. Should this downward trend continue, a target around the 1.1390 support level may be reached.
On the other hand, any movement above 1.1819 would restore short-term bullish sentiment and could lead to a retest of the 1.1917 high.
Looking at the broader context, the movement from a low of 1.0176 in 2025 is currently viewed as the third leg of an upward pattern that began at 0.9534 in 2022. The recent projection confirming a target of 1.1916 based on the prior rise from 0.9534 has already been achieved. As the market stands, a continuation of the upward trend remains plausible as long as the 1.1390 support holds firm. A decisive breakthrough at the psychological barrier of 1.2000 would further reinforce bullish sentiment.
Conversely, if the support at 1.1390 fails, it could indicate that the ascent from 1.0176 has concluded, paving the way for a more significant downturn towards the 55-week EMA, presently at 1.1231. Such developments would mark a crucial turning point in the currency pair’s trajectory and could lead to a reassessment of its longer-term bullish potential.
