Bitcoin’s recent market performance has ignited discussions regarding the potential onset of a bear market, particularly in light of its 36% decline from the latest peak. Amidst this atmosphere, trader Cristian Chifoi has raised critical points in a discussion on social media, suggesting that identifying a bear market based solely on price corrections may overlook more significant trading signals.
Chifoi contends that many commentators tend to react to market volatility only after significant declines have occurred. He argues that the real determination of a bear market lies not in the size of the correction but rather in observing what transpires following a meaningful rebound. He emphasizes the importance of understanding price behavior within specific time frames or “seasonality windows.”
In his analysis, Chifoi proposes that a thorough examination of Bitcoin’s price action alongside Tether (USDT) dominance can serve as a valuable indicator. He describes the USDT dominance chart as an inverse reflection of Bitcoin’s performance. For traders, he emphasizes that timing should dominate decision-making, suggesting that the recent drawdown has already met the minimum duration observed in previous cycles.
Chifoi notes that the market has experienced a 77-day correction, stating, “The price couldn’t get lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.” He then outlines a strategy that hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to rebound and maintain momentum. His analysis includes specific targets for USDT dominance and suggests that Bitcoin could see potential price levels exceeding $100,000. However, he cautions that even a significant rebound could lose strength over time, turning into what is termed a “dead cat bounce,” thereby signaling a continuation of market weakness rather than a sustainable upward trend.
Alternatively, he presents a scenario that might unsettle both skeptics of the existing cycle and those who quickly declare the start of a bear market. He posits that Bitcoin might achieve new highs, possibly in the $115,000 to $120,000 range, only to struggle to maintain that achievement over subsequent weeks. Chifoi argues that such a situation could indicate a transition into a bear market if the price fails to showcase significant gains.
Turning to seasonal trends, he highlights a critical time window around January 20, extending into late March or early April, marking it as a pivotal moment for direction. According to his observations, Bitcoin will likely either rally to set a peak around this date or find a low, thereafter pushing higher. He expresses that a surge beyond $100,000 by January 20 could set a sticking point, prompting a subsequent decline, while a pivot low might propel Bitcoin toward further gains.
Chifoi’s perspective divides market participants into two primary categories: those anticipating a supercycle and those declaring the current cycle invalid. He suggests that both camps might be misaligned in their positions if Bitcoin reaches new heights before experiencing a downturn later.
As discussions around Bitcoin’s trajectory continue, Chifoi stresses the importance of monitoring the next few weeks closely. He remains adaptable in his trading approach, prepared to adjust his positioning based on upcoming market developments. As of this moment, Bitcoin is trading at $92,836, leaving traders and analysts attentive to the evolving landscape in the days ahead.
