Kalshi is gaining momentum in the prediction market sector, claiming a significant share of the trading volume while competitors like Polymarket venture into regulated U.S. space. According to recent data from Dune Analytics, between September 11 and September 17, Kalshi represented a remarkable 62% of the total volume in the on-chain prediction market, overshadowing Polymarket, which held a 37% share.
During this period, Kalshi’s trading activity soared to over $500 million, with an average open interest of about $189 million. In comparison, Polymarket recorded a total trading volume of $430 million and an average open interest of $164 million. This disparity indicates that Kalshi users are engaging in more frequent trades, as shown by the lower open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29 for Kalshi against 0.38 for Polymarket. The higher ratio suggests that Polymarket’s positions tend to be held for longer durations.
Polymarket, however, is making strategic moves to bolster its position in the U.S. market. The platform recently finalized the acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, allowing it to re-establish its presence in the country. Additionally, Polymarket has introduced earnings-based markets in collaboration with social investing platform Stocktwits. This initiative is designed to enable stockholders to hedge against earnings risks while providing analysts the opportunity to gauge market sentiment in real-time.
These developments underscore the competitive dynamics within the prediction market landscape as both platforms seek to capitalize on emerging opportunities in a rapidly evolving regulatory environment.
