U.S. unemployment claims fell to 231,000, significantly below the anticipated 241,000, while the Philly Fed Index surged to 23.2, far exceeding the expected 1.7. This positive economic data bolstered the strength of the U.S. dollar, which saw an increase in the Dollar Index. However, it is approaching immediate resistance levels, with a confirmed breakout likely to target values between 98 and 99.
In the currency market, the Euro traded below 1.19, setting itself up for potential targets of 1.17 or even 1.16 in the near future. The EUR/INR pair is expected to consolidate within the range of 104.50 to 103.00. Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY has surpassed the 174 mark and, if this level is sustained, could rise towards the 176 to 178 range in the medium term. For the USD/JPY, a breach above 148 is essential for a potential rise towards 150-152. The USD/CNY is gradually climbing, with targets around 7.125 and beyond if it stays above 7.10. The Australian dollar has immediate support at 0.66, which remains to be seen if it will hold, while the British pound may extend its decline to around 1.345/34 before encountering a reversal. The USD/INR has moved above 88, with a breakthrough at 88.25 potentially pushing it to 88.50. Market participants should also keep an eye on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting.
In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise, with room for further upward movement to test resistance levels. However, failure to breach this resistance could lead to a downward correction. German yields have also seen a sharp increase, but similar resistance needs to be overcome to prevent a fall. The 10-year Government of India bonds are currently within a sideways range and have yet to show any significant movements.
Most major indices have experienced positive growth but could encounter immediate resistances. The Dow has made notable gains but must surpass 46,500 to maintain a bullish outlook. The DAX has also risen and may test levels between 24,000 and 24,500 before reaching potential resistance. The Nifty is eyeing a resistance point at 25,500 which needs to be breached for a sustained bullish momentum over the coming weeks. The Nikkei appears poised towards the 46,000 mark, while the Shanghai index remains confined within the 3,800 to 3,950 range.
In the commodities sector, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices are mixed. Brent crude needs to break above $68 to aim for $70 to $72; otherwise, it risks falling to the $66 to $64 range. WTI must clear $64 to target $66 to $68, while a failure could push it down to $62 to $60. Gold is holding above support levels, potentially rebounding to the $3,750 to $3,800 range. Silver has rebounded from $41.50, with prospects of rising towards $42.50 to $43.00. Copper remains weak, trading towards $4.55, and natural gas prices may decline further to the $2.90 to $2.80 range.
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