In recent discussions regarding the cryptocurrency market, Luke Gromen has expressed a cautious outlook on Bitcoin, indicating a notable shift in sentiment. While he maintains that the overarching theme of “debasement” remains significant, he is reducing his exposure to Bitcoin as he observes deteriorating market signals.
During a recent episode of the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen suggested that reaching the $40,000 range for Bitcoin in 2026 is conceivable. However, he is quick to clarify that this caution does not imply a belief that Bitcoin is on an irreversible decline.
Gromen has pointed out that assets like gold and certain equities are currently manifesting the debasement narrative more compellingly than Bitcoin. He highlighted three specific concerns that contribute to his skeptical stance: Bitcoin’s lag behind gold, the observable “trend damage” within its price performance, and the impact of recent headlines surrounding quantum computing.
When comparing Bitcoin to gold, Gromen uses the BTC-to-gold ratio as a barometer for Bitcoin’s effectiveness as a store of value. This ratio has notably fallen to around 20 ounces per Bitcoin, a significant decrease from approximately 40 ounces in December 2024. He cites important breaks below key moving averages as evidence of the trend damage affecting Bitcoin’s outlook.
Additionally, Gromen identifies the “quantum risk” narrative as a potential market headwind. Despite the uncertainty regarding the timelines associated with advancements in quantum computing, such discussions could negatively influence market sentiment and contribute to weaker price movements for Bitcoin.
Instead of making outright predictions, Gromen’s analytical framework revolves around monitoring several recurring inputs. He pays close attention to the BTC-to-gold ratio, a trend filter, and flows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gauge market conditions effectively.
