Macro trader Mel Mattison recently provided a comprehensive outlook for 2026 on the TFTC platform, intricately linking geopolitical dynamics, liquidity conditions, and bitcoin’s recent market behavior into a cohesive thesis.
According to Mattison, the decline of the “rules-based order” is paving the way for a multipolar world defined by national interests and resource security. He described the previous order as a facade that has weakened significantly, stating, “The rules-based order was essentially a scam… that started to fall apart. So, we’re no longer enforcing it. So, it basically means nothing.”
In discussing bitcoin, Mattison characterized it as a liquidity-driven asset rather than one strictly tied to equity markets. He noted that the weakness observed in bitcoin’s price in late 2025 stemmed more from liquidity and market mechanics rather than direct correlations with stock performance. He explained, “Bitcoin is like a global liquidity correlated asset,” indicating a complex interplay between various market factors rather than mere speculative trading.
Among the factors contributing to recent selling pressure, he pointed to the practice of tax-loss harvesting via spot bitcoin ETFs and the absence of a wash-sale rule that applies to spot bitcoin. These elements combined to intensify the year-end selling environment.
Looking ahead, Mattison reiterated a substantial price target for bitcoin, forecasting a surge to $150,000 in the first half of 2026. However, he cautioned that the most opportune buying moments usually arise amid maximum uncertainty, and that selling often follows when pessimistic sentiment reaches its peak.
In terms of market volatility, Mattison highlighted a potential Supreme Court ruling that might limit tariff authority as a possible catalyst for a sharp, though brief, downturn in markets. He expressed confidence in the expansion of liquidity over the next one to three years, anticipating that both the Federal Reserve and the banking system would gradually absorb more Treasuries.
Moreover, he indicated that rising energy prices coupled with productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence could mitigate inflation worries, thus supporting more robust balance sheets moving forward.
