The Indian stock market is set to begin on an optimistic note as the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, prepare for a rally on Thursday, December 11. This anticipated rise comes on the heels of positive global market sentiments and a recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 basis points, marking the third consecutive reduction. With the new key rate adjusted to approximately 3.6%, its lowest in nearly three years, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach moving forward, suggesting that the central bank will now monitor factors like hiring and inflation closely. Projections show officials expect just one additional rate cut next year.
In granular market data, the GIFT Nifty points to a strong opening for Indian indices, with trades around the 25,966 level reflecting an increase of 131 points or 0.5% from the previous Nifty futures close.
However, the Indian stock market experienced declines in the previous session, marking a three-day losing streak on December 10. The Sensex initially climbed 354 points to hit an intraday high of 85,020.34, but ultimately retreated, concluding 275 points lower at 84,391.27. Similarly, Nifty 50 lost 82 points, settling at 25,758. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell by 1.08% and 0.58%, respectively, leading to a loss of over ₹1 lakh crore in investor wealth as the total market capitalization of BSE-listed firms dwindled to ₹463.8 lakh crore.
Market analysts are weighing in on what to expect for both the Sensex and Nifty 50. According to Mayank Jain, a market analyst at Share.Market, the Sensex has shown oscillation within a narrow range between 84,000 and 85,000 recently. He highlighted key support levels from 84,000 to 84,100, while resistance remains strong between 85,000 and 85,100. Jain indicated that the market may continue moving sideways unless a decisive breakout occurs, with early trends likely influenced by global cues.
On the derivatives front, Dhupesh Dhameja from SAMCO Securities noted a cautious sentiment, with aggressive positions being added by call writers at near-the-money strikes—indicating strong overhead supply. The put writers have unwound some positions and shifted to lower strikes, hinting at consolidation expectations. A notable build-up of nearly 1.34 crore call contracts at the 26,000 level has solidified it as a key resistance zone, while significant support is evident with 76.29 lakh put contracts at 25,500.
For Nifty 50, traders expect it to remain within a restricted range as analysts cite firm support and resistance levels that have limited upside momentum amidst weak global cues. Jain noted that while buyers may emerge around the 25,650–25,700 levels supported by the 50-day moving average, falling below this zone could lead to further declines toward 25,500. Conversely, resistance persists around 25,900–26,000, where the index has consistently struggled to move beyond.
Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking highlighted the shifting critical levels, indicating that a decisive fall below 25,650 could intensify consolidation with the next major support around 25,400. Meanwhile, Rupak De from LKP Securities observed that the Nifty has not managed to sustain recovery attempts, pointing to a broader bearish market atmosphere.
Turning to Bank Nifty, the index showed signs of a bearish trend, entering a phase of sideways consolidation after slipping below its 20-day EMA for the first time in recent sessions. Vatsal Bhuva, a technical analyst at LKP Securities, pointed out weak sentiment as the index exhibited lower tops in its RSI pattern. Immediate support levels align between 58,750 and 58,775, with resistance near the 10-day EMA at 59,300. A breakdown beneath the support zone may lead to elevated selling pressure, while regaining momentum above the 10-day EMA would restore market optimism.
Investors are advised to consider insights and recommendations from certified experts before making any decisions, as market conditions remain volatile and subject to change.
