In a recent update from Capitol Hill, Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto America, provided insights regarding the anticipated Market Structure Bill. According to multiple sources, the Senate Banking Republicans’ target date for a markup on September 30 is now deemed highly unlikely to happen. The Democrats have yet to provide feedback on the bill, as they are currently focused on reaching an agreement on procedural matters before delving into negotiations about the specifics of the legislation. The threat of a looming government shutdown further complicates matters, rendering a markup on the 30th almost impossible.
Looking ahead, there is discussion of a new potential target date for the markup during the week of October 20, although this is not confirmed. Terrett noted that despite this delay, the bill could still make its way to the Senate floor by the end of the year, provided no significant obstacles arise from opposing parties.
This potential postponement of crypto legislation introduces a degree of uncertainty into the market, thereby impacting investor sentiment. The Market Structure Bill aims to furnish crypto firms, exchanges, and investors with much-needed regulatory clarity, particularly concerning the classification of cryptocurrencies as either commodities or securities.
Coincidentally, the week of October 20 also coincides with the final decision deadlines for several XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These include the Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and CoinShares XRP ETFs, with decision deadlines ranging from October 23 to 25. However, it appears that the delays in the progress of the Market Structure Bill will not influence the SEC’s decisions regarding these ETFs. Notably, recent rulings have classified XRP as a non-security, opening avenues for an XRP-spot ETF market.
In terms of price action, XRP experienced a decline of 0.97% on September 23, continuing a downtrend that has seen it slide 4.06% in the previous session and closing at $2.8264. The token is currently nearing key support levels, and traders are monitoring several crucial technical thresholds:
- Support Levels: $2.8 and $2.5
- Resistance Levels: $3, $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66
Looking forward, several key catalysts could influence XRP’s price movements. Potential factors include demand for XRP ETFs, the approval or delays surrounding XRP-spot ETFs, and BlackRock’s plans for an iShares XRP Trust. Additionally, institutional perceptions of XRP as a treasury reserve asset will play a role, alongside significant regulatory developments like Ripple’s application for a U.S.-chartered bank license, the progression of the Market Structure Bill, and updates from SWIFT.
Market dynamics will largely hinge on the inflows of institutional capital and regulatory actions, determining whether XRP will test lower support levels or push through upper resistance boundaries.
Bearish scenarios could involve disappointing inflows from ETFs, delays in XRP-spot ETF applications, and sluggish progress on supportive legislation. If major corporations shy away from recognizing XRP as a treasury reserve and if Ripple’s banking license application is delayed or denied, these events may push XRP below $2.8, exposing it to further downside risk around the $2.5 level.
Alternatively, a bullish scenario could materialize if various XRP ETFs report strong inflows, and if BlackRock moves forward with its iShares XRP Trust submission, coupled with favorable SEC rulings. Increased adoption of Ripple’s technology by payment platforms and successful approval of a U.S.-chartered bank license for Ripple could trigger upward momentum for XRP. If these outcomes unfold, XRP could find itself testing and potentially surpassing the critical $3 resistance level, setting the stage for a move towards $3.2 and possibly beyond.
