Canadian oil stocks are experiencing a significant downturn due to developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there is heightened speculation regarding the potential lifting of some sanctions on Russian oil. Should these negotiations yield favorable results, India and China may resume purchasing Russian oil at reduced prices, exacerbating an existing supply glut that has already caused West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices to drop from $60 per barrel to $56.
In this challenging environment, companies like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), which operates Canada’s largest oil sands reserve, have seen their stock prices react accordingly. CNQ’s breakeven cost is around the mid-$40s per barrel, allowing it to remain viable at prices above $50 per barrel. However, this downturn led to a 10% drop in its share price last December. Other oil and gas producers, including Altagas, Suncor Energy, and Tourmaline Oil, have similarly faced stock declines ranging from 6% to 8% since early December, with pipeline operators like Enbridge and Pembina Pipeline also taking hits.
Amid the gloom, TC Energy (TSX:TRP) has managed to stand out. The company recently spun off its oil pipeline business, distancing itself from the troubled Keystone pipeline, which has historically impacted its returns due to multiple oil spills. This strategic move has allowed TC Energy to shift its focus more onto natural gas pipelines. In the first nine months of 2025, the company placed around $8 billion in assets into service, conducting projects that were approximately 15% under budget. Additionally, it has approved new projects totaling around $5.1 billion with a favorable build-to-sell multiple.
Interestingly, even with TC Energy’s stock nearing all-time highs, it is trading at a lower valuation than Enbridge, priced at 20.8 times its earnings per share compared to Enbridge’s 25 times.
The unpredictability linked to the peace negotiations means that oil prices may continue to be volatile—rising if talks falter and potentially dropping further if resolutions are found. Such fluctuations influence investor behavior, urging countries to seek safe havens like gold, which traditionally sees an uptick in demand during times of uncertainty. The inverse relationship between gold and oil prices has been observed; for instance, in 2025, gold prices surged by 58%, while WTI crude fell by 18%. This divergence was attributed to trade tariffs affecting Canadian oil and a global trend of central banks accumulating gold reserves.
Among the gold stocks, Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) has attracted attention, showing a remarkable 259% increase in 2025. The company boasts one of the lowest all-in sustaining costs (AISCs) at $957 per ounce, with gold prices trading around $4,300. Although Lundin anticipates an increase in AISCs to between $1,060 and $1,170 for 2026, it still maintains a competitive edge over other major players like Kinross Gold and Barrick Gold, whose AISCs stand at $1,490 and $1,660, respectively.
Investors looking for promising opportunities in the gold sector may consider Lundin Gold for potential substantial returns.
In the broader context, before making any investment decisions regarding TC Energy Corporation, investors are advised to explore a carefully curated list of stocks identified by analysts as top picks.
