What began as an Israeli military strike against Iran has rapidly escalated into a significant military conflict across the Middle East, reminiscent of the most intense regional confrontations in recent history. This aggression poses considerable risks to global financial markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.
Reports from outlets such as Bloomberg, CNN, and Reuters indicate that Iran has responded with waves of missile and drone attacks targeting not only Israel but also U.S. bases and interests throughout the Gulf region. In a notable development, Bahrain has confirmed that an American military base was struck. Meanwhile, Qatar and the UAE reported successful interceptions of missiles that threatened their airspace, and explosions were noted in Dubai. Due to the escalating situation, Bahrain has completely closed its airspace. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency asserted that it would target all U.S. interests in the area.
In response to the unfolding crisis, President Trump announced that the U.S. had initiated “major combat operations in Iran,” focusing on crippling the nation’s missile capabilities, naval forces, and nuclear infrastructure. He acknowledged the potential for American casualties, underscoring the grave realities of warfare.
In the wake of these developments, Bitcoin, which had already dipped below $64,000 following the initial Israeli strikes, has shown resilience by holding above $63,000 during Iran’s retaliatory response. This relative stability can be attributed to thin weekend liquidity and the fact that many leveraged positions had already been impacted during a preceding downturn from $70,000 earlier in the week.
However, analysts point out that the true examination of Bitcoin’s stability will occur when traditional markets reopen on Monday. Historically, Bitcoin often absorbs the initial wave of geopolitical tensions, primarily due to its status as the only major liquid asset that trades over the weekend. Other financial markets including equities, oil, and bonds are inactive until Sunday evening or Monday morning. Should these markets experience sharp declines, Bitcoin may face a further wave of risk-off selling, potentially pushing its price down to the $60,000 mark or lower.
The pattern of Bitcoin’s historical behavior during geopolitical disturbances offers mixed signals. Previous escalations, such as the Iranian retaliatory strikes in April 2025 and earlier tensions in 2020, saw Bitcoin decline initially before recovering once traditional markets stabilized and the situation appeared manageable. This time, however, the prospect of containment seems more complex. With missiles reportedly landing in key locations like Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain, the conflict now resembles a regional war that threatens to disrupt major economic territories.
The potential for escalating oil prices could severely impact global markets, leading to widespread risk aversion and further declines in cryptocurrency values. Although Bitcoin is often viewed as “digital gold,” its trading patterns suggest it behaves more like a risk asset rather than a reliable safe haven. Observers note that the significant support level of $60,000, which held during a previous market crash in February, will likely be tested under these heightened conditions, presenting a more challenging scenario than prior leverage-driven sell-offs.
