A significant shift in the Bitcoin market is underway, as new whales now hold an impressive $130 billion worth of Bitcoin, surpassing the $126 billion held by traditional “OG” whales. This transformation is largely attributed to the entry of institutional investors and deep-pocketed newcomers into the market, reshaping existing power dynamics.
The fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market are influenced by evolving supply dynamics between these newly emergent whales and their established counterparts. Although macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions appear to be stabilizing, the underlying conflict among whale cohorts remains a critical factor shaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Among the new entrants are corporations like MicroStrategy and Twenty One Capital, which are primarily driven by institutional strategies rather than the early adoption interest of the original Bitcoin investors. Notably, Twenty One Capital CEO Jack Mallers stated in an interview, “We do not want the market to think and price us just as a treasury asset. That is not us at all. We are going to acquire as much Bitcoin as we possibly can.”
Indeed, data reveals the substantial scale of these new players in the market. Twenty One Capital has amassed 43,514 BTC, valued at roughly $3.91 billion, making it the third-largest corporate holder. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products have collectively accumulated $116.59 billion worth of Bitcoin, which constitutes about 6.5% of the cryptocurrency’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization.
The majority of new whale investors, categorized as those holding over 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, have already surpassed their older counterparts in terms of value controlled. However, their average cost basis hovers around $98,000, while Bitcoin trades at approximately $90,000, leading to about $6 billion in unrealized losses for these large new holders.
As strategic accumulators like MicroStrategy view price dips as prime buying opportunities, the significant underwater positions could pressure other whales to sell, potentially restraining bullish market momentum. “The market is currently in a brutal period of chip exchange and confidence testing,” explained Allen Ding, head of research at Bitfire. “This is not just a game of long versus short, but an intergenerational transfer of chips with liquidity migrating from ‘weak new whales’ to ‘strong new whales’ or strategic institutions.”
Ding emphasized that the influence of these robust long-position players is changing the market structure, contributing to ongoing volatility. The presence of ‘price-insensitive’ long-term buyers has established new psychological anchors and liquidity resilience within the market. Until the redistribution of this supply is fully absorbed, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a range-bound state.
Parallel to these developments, certain macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may also be contributing to Bitcoin’s sideways movement. An announcement from former President Donald Trump about not implementing tariffs against several European nations provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, leading to a near 3% surge in Bitcoin’s value.
While some relief comes from external factors, the primary tension within the new whale cohort continues to dominate the Bitcoin market landscape, pointing to an ongoing struggle that could shape future trajectories for the cryptocurrency.
