The National Football League (NFL) season is set to kick off Thursday night, prompting a surge in activity on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, where bettors are eager to place their early-season wagers. So far, betting on the season opener between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys has topped $600,000, surpassing the approximately £150,000 ($201,000) collected by Betfair, Europe’s largest betting exchange. However, these figures are relatively modest compared to the $100 million or more typically wagered on individual NFL games through traditional channels.
Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, announced Wednesday that the platform received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to operate legally across all 50 states, including those where traditional sports betting remains prohibited, such as Texas. This regulatory milestone followed a strategic social media campaign that hinted at the arrival of “legal football trading” nationwide this fall.
The timing comes as Polymarket grapples with a significant downturn in its trading volumes, which have dropped from a record $2 billion during the U.S. election excitement in November to approximately $664 million in August, according to Dune Analytics. This decline underscores Polymarket’s reliance on political events for user engagement. During the election cycle, it served as a key media indicator, often referenced alongside traditional polling data to gauge candidate performance. However, with the election results concluded, interest waned, leading to a shift towards novelty markets, including controversial bets like whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit by July.
As the industry shifts to sports, the potential market for betting on events like the NFL remains substantial, projected to reach $107 billion by 2024. Early data indicates that Polymarket could seize a meaningful portion of this market; users have already wagered over $55 million on MLB World Series markets this year, suggesting that betting on the NFL may gain momentum as the season progresses.
The NFL stands out as a prized target for betting engagement due to its vast fan base, which triggers betting surges weekly through fantasy leagues and sportsbooks. Polymarket’s entry into this arena comes at a pivotal moment, as it aims to challenge the larger sports betting ecosystem. Its unique approach—where users trade contracts among themselves rather than placing bets against a house—positions it more as an exchange than a traditional sportsbook. This market-driven model relies on the collective trading actions of its users to determine odds, potentially disrupting conventional betting methods.
By integrating prediction markets with mainstream sports betting, Polymarket not only seeks to tap into the lucrative multi-billion-dollar industry but also aims to redefine how fans can speculate on game outcomes.
