Premiums for Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage are set to surge by an average of 26% next year, according to an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) released just before the upcoming open enrollment period that begins on November 1. This increase marks one of the largest price hikes since the inception of Obamacare over a decade ago, and it does not account for the impending expiration of enhanced premium subsidies.
Consumers residing in the 30 states that utilize the federal exchange, healthcare.gov, can now preview their potential costs for 2026 coverage, as the site opened for window shopping on Tuesday. The monthly premium for the benchmark plan on healthcare.gov is expected to jump by 30% on average, while states that operate their own exchanges will see average increases of around 17%.
The overall financial impact on enrollees is anticipated to be significantly higher due to the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies. A separate KFF analysis suggests that many enrollees could see their monthly payments more than double. For those exploring options on healthcare.gov, the increases reflect the anticipated lapse of this financial assistance, leading to a stark realization of costs for many first-time shoppers.
The expiration of these larger subsidies has become a focal point in ongoing discussions in Congress regarding federal funding and the recent government shutdown that began on October 1. Democrats are pushing for a short-term funding solution that would include an extension of the enhanced subsidies, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until the government is reopened. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that renewing the subsidies would incur a cost of approximately $350 billion over the next decade.
Even though the enhanced subsidies, which are effectively premium tax credits, are set to expire at the end of the year, their impact is expected to become apparent much sooner. Some politicians and advocates worry that higher premiums could deter consumers from signing up for coverage, even if lawmakers manage to renew the subsidies later.
The last significant premium spike on the federal exchange happened in 2018, following the Trump administration’s elimination of federal support for ACA subsidies. That year, premiums surged by 37%, reflecting market uncertainty about the future of the health reform law.
Several states administering their own Obamacare exchanges have announced that, without the enhanced subsidies in place, premiums could more than double next year. In New Jersey, average premiums are projected to exceed $2,780 annually—an increase of over 174%—due to the combination of terminating enhanced subsidies and a 16.6% hike from insurers. This change will leave about 60,000 enrollees in New Jersey’s Get Covered program without federal assistance in 2026.
In Colorado, the premiums for enrollees through Connect for Health Colorado are projected to rise by an average of 101% next year, with approximately 75,000 residents losing access to health coverage. For instance, a family of four in the Denver area earning about $128,000 annually would no longer qualify for premium assistance, resulting in an annual premium hike of $14,000 for a standard silver plan.
On the other hand, if the enhanced subsidies were to be continued, the average increase in premiums would be limited to around 16%.
These enhanced subsidies, put in place by a Democratic Congress in 2021 and extended the following year, have been instrumental in driving ACA enrollment to record levels, with approximately 24 million Americans covered this year. On healthcare.gov alone, about 17 million individuals signed up for coverage in 2025, while around 7 million were enrolled in state-run exchanges.
Interestingly, many Republicans would potentially face similar consequences from the withdrawal of enhanced subsidies, given that they reside in states that have experienced significant increases in enrollment. The enhanced aid has allowed many lower-income Americans to obtain coverage at little to no monthly cost and has expanded eligibility for assistance to many middle-class individuals.
However, these generous subsidies have also resulted in fraudulent activities, mostly carried out by agents seeking commissions from enrolling people or switching them without their consent.
The anticipated expiration of these subsidies could lead to a substantial exodus from the exchanges, with projections indicating that about 4 million additional individuals could be uninsured by 2034. This figure adds to an already concerning estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, suggesting that approximately 10 million people could be left without coverage due to changes in Medicaid and ACA provisions.
