Hedera’s cryptocurrency, HBAR, is facing renewed challenges following a downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market. This recent decline has seen HBAR’s value drop significantly, reflecting bearish sentiments primarily influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing weaknesses in Bitcoin’s performance. While the long-term outlook for Hedera remains positive, short-term recovery efforts may encounter difficulties as negative market sentiment continues to affect prices.
The current trading pattern of HBAR showcases a macro bullish sentiment, as it operates within a well-defined descending channel. A rejection from the upper boundary of this channel, approximately $0.1290, has confirmed a prevailing seller dominance. The price has recently dipped to around $0.0893, indicating weak demand and the potential for further declines as momentum and market structure appear to lean toward bearish trends.
Immediate support for HBAR is set at $0.0786, a level that previously resulted in a brief bounce. Analysts suggest that if HBAR can manage a breakout from the current pattern, it could trigger an upward movement of approximately 31%, sending prices toward $0.1252. Such a bounce could pave the way for additional recovery in the future.
However, on the derivatives front, trader expectations reveal a more complex scenario. Over the past couple of days, HBAR’s futures funding rates have remained in negative territory, indicating that short positions are compensating long positions. This trend reflects a prevailing bias toward further price declines. The dominance of short contracts over long positions suggests skepticism about any immediate recovery, and although excessive short exposure could lead to sharp price adjustments, it highlights a cautious approach among speculative traders.
Moreover, HBAR’s price movements remain closely tied to Bitcoin, with a high correlation coefficient of approximately 0.96. This strong relationship typically benefits altcoins during Bitcoin’s rallies, as market capital tends to flow in unison. Currently, however, this correlation poses a constraint, as Bitcoin’s inability to regain momentum may hinder HBAR’s recovery prospects. Until Bitcoin stabilizes or shows signs of recovery, HBAR is likely to mirror the broader market’s pressures rather than experience a meaningful decoupling.
At the moment, HBAR is trading near $0.0895, just below a resistance level at $0.0907 that has limited recent upward movements. Successfully flipping this resistance into support would signal an improved market structure and open pathways towards the next target at $0.1029. Nevertheless, the prevailing market conditions suggest that a failed breakout is more likely in the near term. Should HBAR fail to reclaim the $0.0907 level, it could consolidate above the $0.0832 support mark. A further breakdown below this threshold would expose HBAR to a more pronounced decline, potentially targeting $0.0710.
A more constructive outcome in HBAR might hinge upon reclaiming the $0.1029 level, allowing for a recovery of significant recent losses. Such a movement would invalidate the current bearish outlook, indicating that buyers may be regaining control, contingent upon improvements in broader market conditions led by Bitcoin.
