Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to arrive in India today for a two-day visit, which includes attending a dinner hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and participating in the 23rd India–Russia Summit on December 5. This visit is particularly significant given the current strains in India’s relationship with the United States over New Delhi’s continued import of Russian crude oil.
Market analysts emphasize that Putin’s visit comes at a critical juncture in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. According to Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS Wealth Street, the India–Russia partnership, noted for its durability, is now entering a new phase characterized by changing geopolitical alignments, global sanctions, and heightened US–China tensions. As global supply chains face challenges, this visit is seen as pivotal for recalibrating energy, defense, and trade cooperation between the two nations.
Analysts suggest that if Russia commits to ramping up imports of Indian goods, this visit could help alleviate India’s substantial trade deficit with Moscow, currently estimated at $60 billion. The visit could also open new opportunities for Indian businesses across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, engineering, agro products, machinery, and consumer goods. Bilateral trade has already reached approximately $68 billion in FY24-25, significantly buoyed by discounted Russian crude. Future agreements could potentially see trade figures climb to between $100 billion and $150 billion.
Financial markets are keeping a close eye on the implications of Putin’s visit, not just as a ceremonial diplomatic event but as a crucial negotiation focused on risk management, supply chains, and economic resilience. Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice Wealth, noted that any announcements regarding the trade imbalance or advancements in defense production and energy security will be critical for investors. He anticipates that a ‘managed upgrade’ of existing ties or a deeper strategic engagement involving joint ventures could positively affect Indian stocks and reshape India’s connectivity with Eurasian economies.
Additionally, markets will remain alert to updates related to defense, energy, and trade routes, as well as potential responses from the US, which could create short-term volatility in currency and geopolitical stability.
Key focus areas during Putin’s visit will include:
Defense Agreements: With India’s reliance on Russian military equipment, any substantial defense agreements made during the visit could significantly impact Indian defense stocks and reinforce strategic cooperation.
Rupee-Based Settlements: Discussions surrounding a shift to rupee-based settlements may also take place, which would align with India’s efforts toward de-dollarization, mitigate exposure to US sanctions, and allow Russia to reinvest surplus rupees into Indian projects.
Crude Oil Purchases: India’s crude oil imports from Russia have recently hit a three-year low, underscoring the urgency for new long-term energy deals to stabilize inflation and protect external finances.
Overall, Putin’s visit is expected to strengthen the India–Russia relationship while potentially presenting fresh economic prospects for India amid shifting global dynamics.
