Bitcoin has experienced a considerable downturn, falling to $65,530, marking an 8% decrease from the previous day’s high of $71,300. This significant price drop resulted in the liquidation of over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures. The decline has left the majority of call (buy) options worthless as the market approaches its $18.6 billion monthly expiry, with analysts now estimating a 53% likelihood that Bitcoin could remain below the crucial $66,000 threshold by April 24.
On Friday, put options for Bitcoin at the $66,000 mark were traded at approximately 0.0566 BTC, translating to about $3,730. The observed bearish sentiment among professional traders has been fueled further by external factors, including rising geopolitical tensions related to the ongoing war between the US and Iran, dissuading investors from taking on additional risk.
Simultaneously, economic concerns related to inflation are weighing down investor confidence. The increase in oil prices, which has surged to $100 per barrel, along with expectations of an additional $200 billion in US military spending, has resulted in greater demands for higher returns on government bonds. This economic climate contributed to a drop in the S&P 500, reaching its lowest point since September 2025. The yield on 5-year Treasury bonds climbed to 4.07%, up from 3.72% just three weeks ago.
As Bitcoin continues to lag, underperforming the S&P 500 by 20% this year, the uncertainty is not solely driven by economic markers. A significant factor in this bearish trajectory is the lack of a clear U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan, which has left many investors unsettled.
Adding to the market’s apprehension is the recent resignation of David Sacks, who previously held the title of crypto and AI czar under the Trump administration. While he remains on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows previous statements that heightened expectations regarding potential government involvement in Bitcoin acquisition without raising taxes.
The Bitcoin options market reflects a heightened sense of fear, as evidenced by the options delta skew soaring to 15%, a stark contrast to the typical range of -6% to +6% observed in balanced conditions. This shift indicates that put options are trading at a premium compared to calls, suggesting a growing skepticism among large investors regarding the stability of the $66,000 level.
Moreover, Friday’s options expiry saw a dramatic shift favoring bearish strategies. Out of a total of call options, a staggering 97% expired worthless, while put options at $69,000 or higher amassed over $2 billion in open interest. This indicates a growing reluctance among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure heading into the weekend.
A user on the social platform X, known as WhalePanda, suggested that the current volatility may reflect apprehension regarding potential escalating actions from former President Trump after US markets close. There is a prevailing sentiment that fear-driven behaviors will prevail among traders who may hastily exit positions in response to negative news or events.
Despite the current market dynamics, it is essential for investors to remain cautious with Bitcoin’s implied odds, as they are significantly influenced by recent developments and media coverage. Market expectations could potentially shift if Iran responds favorably to the US’s peace proposal.
