As the markets closed on December 24, investors were filled with optimism, having witnessed a week of consistent gains across major U.S. stock indices. The S&P 500 saw an increase of 3.3% since December 17, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 4.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%. This positive momentum had many speculating about the prospect of a “Santa Claus rally”—a phenomenon where market gains are observed during the last five trading days of December and the initial two of January.
Despite the encouraging week leading up to Christmas, it’s important to note that the Santa Claus rally period technically officially begins on December 24 and extends through January 5, taking into account the markets’ closures on Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Therefore, any gains achieved so far do not officially qualify as part of the rally.
Historically, the Santa Claus rally has occurred approximately 80% of the time over the past 50 years, with an average gain of 1.3% for the S&P 500 during the rally period. However, in recent years, the frequency of this festive market boost has declined. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, significant gains in November were often followed by December pullbacks, leading to disappointing outcomes during the Santa rally period. The last notable Santa Claus rally occurred in 2018 when the S&P 500 rose by 4.1%, following a substantial drop of 14.2% between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
This year, market conditions appear favorable for a possible Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 did not reach a new record high in November and has recently rebounded from a modest 2.6% decline. Investor sentiment is buoyed by expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the belief that the strong rally seen during the week before Christmas might extend into the official rally period.
The implications of a successful Santa Claus rally can be significant for the upcoming months. Historically, a positive rally period often leads to three months of stock market outperformance, while a negative rally period tends to precede underperformance. For instance, the S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the first quarter of this year following a missed rally, while it surged by 13.1% in 2019 after a successful rally. However, it’s essential to recognize that recent years showcased scenarios where solid first-quarter gains followed missed rallies, indicating that the relationship isn’t always consistent.
Despite any potential setbacks associated with a missed Santa Claus rally, the overall market performance this year has remained strong, with the S&P 500 reporting an impressive 17.9% gain for the year. This suggests that while a successful rally could set a positive tone for 2026, even a disappointing outcome should not trigger panic among investors. As the year draws to a close, all eyes will be on the upcoming trading days to see if Saint Nick will indeed deliver the anticipated market boost.
