The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to make a landmark decision regarding XRP on October 18. After experiencing a remarkable surge to a 52-week peak of $3.65 in July, XRP has been on a downtrend, dipping below the vital $3 mark. This decline has raised concerns among investors who anticipated further gains for the cryptocurrency throughout the remainder of the year.
However, optimism remains as a crucial catalyst approaches—namely, the potential approval of new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) specifically for XRP. Currently, only Bitcoin and Ethereum have received approval for spot ETFs, making XRP a frontrunner for the next major cryptocurrency to follow suit. Industry analysts, including those at Bloomberg, are suggesting a staggering 95% likelihood that these spot XRP ETFs will commence trading within the year. Prediction markets are also in agreement, with traders on platforms like Polymarket estimating an 87% chance of approval taking place this year.
The SEC is set to deliberate on this matter on October 18, where they will make rulings on multiple spot XRP ETFs filed by prominent investment firms such as Grayscale, WisdomTree, and Franklin Templeton. Earlier this August, the SEC delayed its decision, extending the timeline to October. While disappointing for some, this postponement raises the possibility of approving all proposed XRP ETFs simultaneously, similar to the approach taken with spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Should these new spot XRP ETFs gain approval, expectations suggest they could significantly boost XRP’s price. A surge in investments—potentially reaching billions of dollars from both retail and institutional investors—could provide the necessary momentum for XRP’s price to increase. Past data from JPMorgan Chase estimated a potential influx of up to $8 billion into XRP, reminiscent of Bitcoin’s meteoric rise following the approval of its spot ETFs, which saw prices skyrocket by an impressive 160% early in the year.
Yet, while the prospect of ETF approvals could yield substantial returns, there is consideration of whether this potential is already factored into XRP’s current price. Investors have been anticipating ETF approval for over eight months, potentially mitigating any surprise impact on the market when news breaks on October 18. Furthermore, the market often experiences a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomena, which could lead traders to exit positions for quick profits right after the announcement, potentially dampening any immediate effects on XRP’s price.
Investors in XRP should remain cautious, as the cryptocurrency has a history of volatility characterized by overpromises and underdelivering. Despite being up 23% for the year, most of these gains occurred earlier, amidst a wave of optimism surrounding pro-crypto sentiment spurred by governmental changes in the U.S. Current economic factors, such as looming tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainties, could hinder XRP’s momentum as the year draws to a close.
Nevertheless, XRP has demonstrated the capability to achieve rapid gains in a short time frame, with a past surge of 580% between November 2024 and January 2025 serving as a pertinent reminder of its potential. Investors are keenly awaiting October 18, as it could serve as a pivotal moment for XRP’s price trajectory in the coming months.
