In a striking revelation, six accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket collectively gained approximately $1.2 million after accurately wagering that the U.S. would conduct military strikes against Iran by February 28, 2026. This information comes from the blockchain analytics firm, Bubblemaps, which detailed the precise timing and funding of these high-stakes bets.
According to Bubblemaps, most of the wallets associated with these accounts were funded no more than 24 hours before the military action was reported. Bettors purchased “Yes” shares in a specific market related to the U.S. strikes just hours prior to the explosions that were confirmed in Tehran and various other locations. Interestingly, these accounts showed no previous trading activity beyond these specific predictions.
Following the attacks, which were characterized by U.S. President Donald Trump as “major combat operations” against Iran’s missile, naval, and nuclear facilities, the immediate financial repercussions were evident. Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, while crude oil futures on the Hyperliquid platform saw a notable increase.
One particular Polymarket account stood out, acquiring more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at a price of around 10.8 cents each. This strategic bet paid off handsomely, yielding nearly $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account, which purchased close to 150,000 shares at a price of 20 cents, also realized a substantial profit. Notably, records indicate that all six accounts were created within the same month, hinting at a coordinated effort.
The trading volume for the Feb. 28 contract surged to nearly $90 million, part of an extensive $529 million wagered across related strike-markets since the previous December. Bubblemaps further illustrated these findings with a visual representation of the six wallets, demonstrating that they were funding their bets via similar channels.
This incident coincides with ongoing discussions among U.S. regulators regarding how to manage and monitor insider trading within prediction markets. Recent developments have seen rival platform Kalshi take decisive action by suspending and fining two users for insider trading, one of whom was allegedly aware of outcomes related to a show produced by content creator MrBeast.
Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has investigated around 200 cases of potential insider trading, with more than a dozen active investigations. The CFTC has issued warnings regarding the possibility that insider trading on event contracts could violate U.S. law, with Chairman Mike Selig emphasizing that exchanges serve as the “first line of defense” against such activities. In one case, a Kalshi employee was banned for two years and fined over $20,000 for trading based on privileged information regarding his own election campaign.
Notably, recent activity on Polymarket has raised eyebrows, with traders seemingly engaging in insider trading in an area pertaining to insider trading itself. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT hinted at an upcoming report on a crypto platform, Axiom, where employees allegedly utilized non-public information for trading. His teasing of the investigation correlated with the emergence of a Polymarket contract aimed at predicting which company would be named, leading to the identification of 12 wallets that significantly bet on Axiom right before the findings were disclosed.
