The recent approval of spot XRP ETFs has been viewed as a potentially significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency market. Notably, Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, projects that XRP could reach $8 by 2026, reflecting a staggering 315% increase from its current price of $1.90. Kendrick’s optimism is rooted in expectations of increased regulatory clarity, bolstered by the approval of the ETFs, which may enhance adoption rates among investors.
However, some analysts are exercising caution regarding such bullish forecasts. Despite the optimistic sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency industry—bolstered in part by the Trump administration’s support—XRP has surprisingly fallen by 7% year-to-date. An alternative projection suggests a more moderate target of $3 by 2026, indicating roughly 58% upside from current levels.
The backdrop for XRP’s fluctuating prospects includes favorable developments in legal matters. In 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple, the company behind XRP, alleging the asset was sold as an unregistered security. A split ruling from a U.S. district court in 2023 deemed that while direct institutional sales were illegal, programmatic sales to retail investors remained permissible. The SEC’s subsequent decision to drop its appeal against Ripple may remove a significant legal hurdle, potentially facilitating broader XRP adoption within the financial sector.
Support from the Trump administration further enhances this optimistic outlook. Early this year, an executive order was signed to establish a national digital asset stockpile, and cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins was nominated as the SEC chairman. These moves can be seen as indications that digital assets are increasingly being recognized as integral to the financial system.
XRP is designed to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border transactions, operating on the XRP Ledger, which addresses the limitations of the traditional SWIFT system. Ripple, the fintech organization behind XRP, aims to capture a significant share of the SWIFT payment volume, indicating a potential increase in demand for the cryptocurrency. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has suggested that the company could secure 14% of SWIFT’s payment volume—equivalent to over $20 trillion—within the next five years. Critics, however, argue that this outlook may be overly ambitious given the availability of stablecoins, which are generally considered less volatile alternatives for transferring money.
Despite improvements in regulatory conditions, XRP’s monthly transaction volume has declined in the past two years, casting doubt on both XRP and its stablecoin counterpart, Ripple USD, in gaining traction as a bridge currency.
The introduction of spot XRP ETFs in U.S. markets, such as those launched by Franklin Templeton, has the potential to stimulate demand by simplifying the investment process. Historical trends indicate that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs significantly boosted Bitcoin’s price, prompting speculation that XRP may experience a similar surge.
While the recent approval of spot XRP ETFs serves as a compelling reason for potential investors to consider XRP, caution remains prudent. XRP continues to be one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, attracting institutional investors’ interest. However, confidence in Bitcoin as a superior investment remains strong, suggesting that any investments in XRP or related ETFs should be approached with careful consideration.
