One of the most prominent voices in the cryptocurrency investment space is scaling back its forecasts for bitcoin, reflecting growing concerns about the digital asset’s trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, who leads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, has revised the bank’s forecasts dramatically after previously predicting that bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
In a recent client note, Kendrick outlined a new outlook that suggests bitcoin will end this year at approximately $100,000, marking a modest upside of 6% from current levels. For 2024, the projection sees bitcoin reaching $150,000, a stark reduction from an earlier target of $300,000.
The adjustments to Standard Chartered’s price forecasts follow a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has faced a notable decline, dropping around 27% from its peak observed in early October. Kendrick attributes this downturn to various factors, emphasizing the dwindling support from bitcoin treasuries, which are companies that acquire and hold bitcoin as part of their financial strategy. He noted that these entities are unlikely to prop up the cryptocurrency’s price going forward. Instead, he indicated that bitcoin’s future price movements will rely heavily on the buying activity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In his remarks, Kendrick stated, “Price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts,” underscoring the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of the crypto market. He expressed skepticism about the sustainability of bitcoin treasury purchases, arguing that this trend may have “run its course,” but he still sees the possibility of periodic ETF inflows.
This year has proven to be challenging for bitcoin, as it grappled with a broader market reaction to tariffs and ongoing concerns about rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate cuts, specifically looking ahead to 2026. The latest declines in bitcoin’s price can also be attributed to a combination of low market liquidity, a prevailing risk-averse sentiment, and emerging speculation regarding Strategy, a major corporate buyer of bitcoin, which may be compelled to divest some of its holdings.
The shifting landscape signals a more cautious approach among analysts and investors as the crypto market evolves, leaving many to wonder about the future direction of bitcoin and its role in portfolios.
