Standard Chartered has revised its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, significantly lowering its price projections for the cryptocurrency over the next five years. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, indicated in a recent email that while he anticipates Bitcoin will continue to reach new all-time highs, the rate of growth will be slower than initially expected.
In a note dated December 9, Kendrick explained that this reassessment followed a notable decline in Bitcoin’s price. The cryptocurrency experienced a steep drop of approximately 36%, falling from a peak of around $126,000 in October to about $80,000. This downturn can be attributed to geopolitical tensions, including tariff threats from the U.S. against China and a tightening liquidity environment.
Kendrick characterized the recent correction as “normal,” recalling two similar downturns since the SEC authorized trading of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024. However, he admitted that these market adjustments necessitated an overhaul of the bank’s previous price targets for Bitcoin, which are now considerably lower.
The new forecasts for Bitcoin point to a year-end price of $100,000 for 2023, down from the prior estimate of $200,000. For 2026, the target has been cut from $300,000 to $150,000. Additionally, projections for 2027 and 2028 have shifted from $400,000 to $225,000 and from $500,000 to $300,000, respectively. The 2029 forecast has also been adjusted downward from $500,000 to $400,000.
Standard Chartered attributes this revised trajectory to the anticipated decrease in purchasing activity from digital asset treasury firms. These companies have historically been able to acquire Bitcoin without diluting shareholder value by trading at premiums to their underlying assets. As valuations decline, Kendrick expects these firms may consolidate their positions rather than continue accumulating.
With treasury buyers seemingly exiting the market, Kendrick emphasized that ETF inflows will be the chief driver of Bitcoin prices moving forward. He noted that the Bitcoin ETF market is expected to take years to mature fully as broader access is developed and investment committees take their time adapting to new trends.
Despite the downward adjustments, Standard Chartered dismissed speculation that Bitcoin is entering a prolonged correction reminiscent of its historical four-year cycle, which has typically seen periods of boom and bust in correlation with events known as “halvenings”—periodic reductions in the rate of Bitcoin supply. Kendrick insists that the current environment is unique, positing that ETF-driven demand could uphold Bitcoin’s value moving forward.
As of the latest figures, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $87,000, reflecting ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
