The exploration of the Classic Maya economy has revealed intriguing insights into human behavior and economic practices, as noted by historian Philip Curtin. His analysis focused on obsidian blades, where archaeologists discovered that the ratio of cutting length to weight varied inversely with distance from obsidian sources. This observation raises compelling questions about the nature of economic interactions even in ancient societies.
Economist Deirdre McCloskey interprets this finding to suggest that the drive for exchange and profit has long been an intrinsic aspect of human nature. She argues that if the Maya operated within a purely nonmarket economy, their purchase decisions regarding obsidian wouldn’t vary based on cost. However, the inverse relationship observed indicates that blade makers were more meticulous with valuable obsidian, leading to better profits—a clear sign of profit-seeking behavior.
In contrast, the concept of formal markets introduces additional layers, such as property rights and legal obligations, which channel evolutionary human behaviors rather than instigating them. This perspective on economic behavior finds a modern parallel in the bustling streets of Tokyo, filled with vibrant Gachapon machines that entice collectors and profit-seekers alike.
The Gachapon phenomenon illustrates the complexity of modern markets where the allure of rare collectibles drives demand. Empirical data suggests that a significant portion of Gachapon buyers are not motivated solely by the joy of collecting; many aim for profitable resales. For instance, the recent Labubu collectibles saw resale prices dramatically drop following an announcement of increased supply, highlighting the interplay between speculation and market dynamics.
Across various platforms, including Courtyard, Collector Crypt, Phygitals, and Emporium, spending on Gachapon-style products surged from $10.4 million in January to $61.1 million by August. This growth culminated in a high of approximately $114 million in trading volumes last month.
These platforms operate on a similar business model: they securely hold collectible cards, typically graded Pokemon or baseball cards, which are tokenized as NFTs. Users purchase these items using stablecoins, enjoy a randomized selection, and have several options afterward, including reselling to the platform or redeeming physical cards.
While some platforms, like Phygitals, face challenges in inventory management by utilizing dropshipping, others like Collector Crypt boast extensive collections thanks to strong acquisition strategies. Research indicates that spending is disproportionately concentrated among a small fraction of users, with a significant percentage of revenues derived from just 5.9% of users on Courtyard and 17.5% on Collector Crypt.
An interesting aspect of this evolving marketplace is the absence of verified random number generators (RNGs). Unlike traditional Gachapon, where consumers may accept a certain level of opaqueness, financial speculators prioritize clarity and trust in their transactions. They routinely analyze probabilities and expected values, thereby demanding more transparency from platforms.
Despite platforms offering buyback options to mitigate financial loss, a trust gap persists among users. Implementing frameworks such as verifiable randomness could enhance user confidence and create a more sustainable economic environment, aligning the interests of collectors and financial speculators alike.
