Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket have dramatically increased the implied odds of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurring by the end of this year. This unique market, titled “Will Jesus return in 2026,” saw trading at approximately 4 cents per share on Friday, reflecting a roughly 4% chance of the event happening. This marks a significant rise from its earlier low of about 1.8% on January 3, indicating that the “Yes” side gained more than 120% in just over a month.
In contrast to this unlikely prediction, Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has seen a decline of 18% this year. Factors contributing to Bitcoin’s downturn include growing concerns regarding the potential impact of quantum computing on its encryption, speculation about possible hedge fund collapses, and overarching risk-averse sentiment in global markets. As a result, even the more eccentric prediction contracts on Polymarket have shown greater resilience compared to Bitcoin’s struggles.
The mechanics of Polymarket operate similarly to binary options. A “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and nothing if it doesn’t, with the trading price representing the crowd’s implied probability of the event’s occurrence. Therefore, purchasing a “Yes” share at 4 cents equates to paying that amount for the potential payoff of $1. Meanwhile, buying “No” at 96 cents means betting against the event happening, where the trader stands to gain 4 cents if the outcome resolves as “No.” Should “No” continue trading in the mid-to-high 90s for an extended period, it creates an illusion of gradual gains, even though the final result is binary and subject to sudden swings.
This contract will resolve to “Yes” if the Second Coming occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET; otherwise, it resolves as “No.” Polymarket has stated that the resolution will be based on a consensus from credible sources, which underscores why many traders view this particular market more as a novelty rather than a serious predictor of future events.
The observed trading activity provides insights into how prediction markets can mirror microcap tokens in behavior. Given the limited liquidity on these platforms, even small surges in buying can lead to steep increases in perceived probabilities, resulting in eye-catching gains.
The surge in the “Jesus trade” signifies Polymarket’s evolving role as a real-time gauge for internet interest, allowing for the trading of a diverse array of topics, from political elections to celebrity scandals and religious predictions within the same platform. While the “Jesus trade” remains a minor sideshow in the broader market, it serves as a timely reminder that amidst Bitcoin’s ongoing challenges, some of the more peculiar segments of the crypto market may still experience upward momentum.
