A prominent crypto commentator, known as plur daddy on Twitter, has re-emerged with a macroeconomic thesis emphasizing the pivotal roles of Bitcoin and gold within an evolving monetary policy context. He argues that former President Donald Trump’s potential efforts to gain greater control over U.S. monetary policy could trigger a liquidity surge that would undermine the dollar, thus prompting institutional interest in alternative assets.
These statements come at a time when global leaders are contemplating the use of Russia’s frozen reserves to support new financial assistance to Ukraine, while gold prices approach historical highs. This evolving situation suggests a market regime where Bitcoin increasingly correlates more closely with liquidity conditions and institutional trust rather than adherence to its traditional four-year cycle tied to halving events.
Plur daddy expressed a renewed optimism about Bitcoin and gold, stating his investment stance. “I continue to be long BTC and also significantly sized up my gold position in August,” he noted, attributing this to his belief that Trump’s efforts to dominate Federal Reserve control could act as a crucial catalyst, a rare opportunity he suggests occurs only once a decade. He predicted that, should Trump assume control, it would be logical for the Fed to cut interest rates and implement some form of yield curve control, which he believes would be damaging to the U.S. dollar.
The commentary frames Bitcoin and gold as primary beneficiaries in a scenario characterized by increasing liquidity and diminishing institutional credibility. He dismisses concerns around Bitcoin following a traditional halving market peak, asserting that the cryptocurrency has been significantly integrated into traditional finance ecosystems, making it a clearer reflection of current liquidity dynamics.
This macro perspective is gaining traction amidst ongoing debates surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has firmly denied accusations of political influence in the bank’s decisions, yet increasing scrutiny surrounds potential appointments influenced by the White House.
The discourse extends to various strategies for lowering mortgage rates through government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could reshape the financial landscape without directly expanding the central bank’s balance sheet. Plur daddy pointed to the political motivations leading up to the U.S. midterm elections, highlighting an inclination toward economic stimulation while cautioning against the inflation risks tied to direct fiscal intervention.
Further supporting his thesis is the recent rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), which has been revived rapidly. Some research has indicated that this aggressive refilling may temporarily drain market liquidity—an aspect closely monitored by crypto traders, given Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to shifts in liquidity conditions compared to traditional equities.
Another critical element of his argument involves Europe’s changing perspective on approximately $300 billion of frozen Russian assets, which have remained immobilized since the 2022 invasion. Brussels is contemplating a framework in which new loans to Ukraine may be secured by these assets, though plur daddy argues that such reparations from Russia are exceedingly unlikely, framing it as a de facto seizure that heightens the relevance of cryptocurrency.
Market conditions are aligning favorably with the store-of-value characteristics of both Bitcoin and gold. Current forecasts project gold prices soaring to between $3,700 and $4,000 within the next few quarters, should demand from central banks continue unabated and private investors shift away from U.S. dollar assets amid geopolitical uncertainties. Plur daddy anticipates that Bitcoin may gain momentum when gold’s upward trajectory falters.
His insights received notable endorsement from fellow traders, with some expressing optimism about potential Bitcoin price increases within a six-month horizon. This sentiment aligns with macroeconomic developments, including the recent appointment of Stephen I. Miran to the Fed Board, who has advocated for quicker monetary easing, amidst ongoing legal battles affecting the independence of the Federal Reserve.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $113,121, reflecting its evolving status within the financial landscape as investors weigh the implications of these macroeconomic shifts.
