In a move that has stirred significant concern within the technology and services sectors, President Donald Trump announced a plan to impose a $100,000 tax on the H-1B visa program, which is widely utilized by companies to recruit highly skilled workers, particularly from countries like India and China. The White House clarified that this tax would apply only to new visas rather than being an annual fee, yet the implications of this policy shift have sent corporate entities and international governments into a frenzy of analysis.
Baird, a financial services firm, has provided insights into the potential impact of this decision, highlighting companies in the consulting and professional services industry that may face the brunt of the changes. According to their data on average application approvals from 2015 to 2024, Infosys, an India-based consulting firm, leads the pack with over 3,750 approvals annually. This increase in application approvals occurs during a challenging period for Infosys, whose stock has seen a sharp decline, plummeting about 22%. Despite a consensus “hold” rating from analysts surveyed by LSEG, the average price target indicates a potential recovery of more than 17% over the coming year.
Cognizant Technology Solutions follows closely behind, with more than 2,450 approvals per year. Notably, Baird analyst David Koning indicated that Cognizant could be among the most affected companies in the sector. He cautioned that while approvals appear high, the actual number of employees entering the U.S. on this visa type may be significantly lower, possibly around 1,000. Koning anticipates a detrimental impact of 25 basis points on their margins and a 1.5% decrease in earnings per share. Cognizant’s shares have also experienced a downturn, falling more than 11% in 2025, but analysts maintain a “hold” rating with a price target suggesting a 27% rally.
Moreover, professional services giant Accenture is projected to experience a lesser impact from the new policy. With an average of just under 1,200 annual approvals, Baird’s Koning estimates that Accenture could face a minor financial setback, potentially less than 5 basis points on margins and around a 0.25% hit to its earnings per share. Accenture’s stock has suffered a more substantial loss, dropping more than 31% since the start of 2025, although analysts still provide a “buy” rating based on a price target that signifies a possible upside exceeding 28%.
As companies navigate the aftermath of the H-1B visa fee decision, market watchers and analysts will be keenly observing the adjustments in corporate strategies and operations, as well as the broader implications for the workforce landscape.
