The performance of the U.S. stock market over the past decade has been remarkable, with the three major indexes showcasing impressive returns. As of September 2025, approximately 5,500 companies were listed on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). These companies are often categorized into indexes that reflect various segments of the market, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite being the most prominent.
The S&P 500 delivered a staggering 216% return over the last ten years, translating to an impressive annualized growth rate of 12.1%. The index, which encompasses 500 of the largest U.S. companies and represents about 80% of domestic equities by market value, serves as a comprehensive benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market. Notable companies in this index include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, which comprise the top five holdings by weight. Investors typically gain exposure to the S&P 500 through index funds, such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a robust 159% return over the same period, compounding at an annual rate of 10%. This index tracks 30 large, well-established U.S. companies, often referred to as blue-chip stocks due to their reputation for quality and steady growth. The Dow is weighted by share price, contrasting with the market capitalization weighting of the S&P 500. Key players within the Dow include Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and Microsoft.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite notched an extraordinary 336% return over the last decade, with a remarkable annual compound growth rate of 15.8%. This index not only measures the performance of over 3,300 companies, predominantly in the U.S., but is also heavily skewed towards the technology sector. The largest constituents, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, underscore the index’s focus on growth-oriented stocks. Investors interested in this tech-heavy index can consider the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF.
Looking ahead, analysts suggest that the upcoming decade may pose challenges for the U.S. stock market. Factors such as tariffs from previous administrations and historically high valuations could impede economic growth. Estimates from notable financial firms indicate that U.S. large-cap stock returns might average around 6.7% annually over the next 10 to 15 years. Specific projections for the S&P 500 suggest returns between 3% and 10% annually, which would require investors to recalibrate their expectations.
To navigate these evolving market conditions, investment strategies may need to adapt, focusing on high-quality stocks bought at reasonable valuations to potentially outperform the major indexes. This dual approach of holding individual stocks along with index funds could provide a balanced avenue for investors aiming for favorable returns in an unpredictable environment.
