US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have kicked off October—historically a bullish month for cryptocurrencies—with a significant surge in investor interest. Over the past week, these ETFs reported cumulative net positive inflows of $3.24 billion, marking one of the most robust weeks since their inception. This figure is just shy of the record $3.38 billion observed in late November 2024. The recent performance is a major turnaround from the previous week, which saw $902 million in outflows, highlighting a renewed sense of optimism among investors.
Analysts attribute this revival in demand to increasing expectations of a US interest rate cut, which has boosted sentiment toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at the digital asset platform Nexo, emphasized the impact of this shift, stating that nearly $4 billion in inflows over the last four weeks could potentially remove over 100,000 BTC from circulation—more than doubling new Bitcoin issuance.
As the inflow momentum continues, Bitcoin’s technical position is strengthening, especially near critical support levels. This trend has important implications as October is traditionally regarded as a strong month for Bitcoin, often referred to as “Uptober” by enthusiasts. This October’s inflows have already driven Bitcoin’s price above $123,996, reaching a six-week high not seen since mid-August.
Market analysts express optimism about the potential for Bitcoin to approach new all-time highs. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards suggested that a breakout above the $120,000 mark could lead to a rapid ascent past the previous high of $150,000 before the year ends in 2025.
The ongoing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs serve as a key indicator of market sentiment, and this October appears to be setting the stage for a possible breakout in the cryptocurrency arena, buoyed by ETF activity and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
However, Bitcoin’s upward trajectory will be influenced by several upcoming events, including a scheduled speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Additionally, market participants are awaiting the delayed US jobs report, which timing is currently contingent on the ongoing government shutdown—the first of its kind since 2018.
Given October’s historical performance—averaging monthly returns of around 20%, following which November traditionally sees even stronger performance—investors remain hopeful for a bullish month ahead. Data from CoinGlass indicates that November has averaged returns of 46%, suggesting that strong momentum could carry forward into the next month.
