US stock futures experienced a modest uptick overnight Sunday, signaling a potential recovery for investors following a challenging week marked by volatility in AI-focused stock trading and unexpected tariff announcements from President Trump set to take effect on October 1. Futures contracts associated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all rose approximately 0.2%.
The previous week had been less favorable for all three major indices. The S&P 500 declined by 0.3%, marking its weakest performance since early August, while the Nasdaq saw a more significant drop of 0.7%. The Dow, after a three-week winning streak, fell by 0.2%.
Adding to the uncertainty, a potential government shutdown looms as the deadline approaches on Wednesday, raising concerns over the release of crucial economic data, including the highly anticipated jobs report scheduled for Friday. A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders is planned for Monday, which may be the last opportunity to avert a shutdown.
In economic news, last week saw jobless claims come in lower than expected, and GDP growth was revised upward. This development has sparked discussions regarding the Federal Reserve’s potential approach to policy adjustments, suggesting a less aggressive stance than previously anticipated. The upcoming September jobs report will be pivotal, with Wall Street economists predicting the creation of 43,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs while expecting the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%.
Despite last week’s decline, the stock market is still on track to conclude September—and the third quarter—with gains. The S&P 500 has risen by 2.8% for the month, the Dow has gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq has increased by 2.9%, driven primarily by technology sector strength.
In corporate news, this week will feature a light earnings calendar, with Nike’s report on Wednesday being the most significant update. Additionally, Carnival Corporation is set to release earnings on Monday. The major banks are anticipated to commence the third-quarter earnings season in earnest by mid-October.
In the commodities market, oil prices fell overnight Sunday, influenced by rising stockpiles and increasing production levels. Brent crude slipped below $70 a barrel after gaining 5.2% the previous week, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $65. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is contemplating an increase in output, potentially matching the planned 137,000 barrel-a-day hike for next month as they shift their focus from price management to reclaiming market share. Nevertheless, oil prices have remained relatively stable, bolstered by strong demand from China. However, the International Energy Agency warns of a looming record oversupply by 2026, as OPEC+ ramps up production alongside rising output from competing sources. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that Brent crude could drop to the mid-$50s per barrel next year, despite anticipated stockpiling from China.
